VIX Still Flirting With Range Highs – Tensions Not Gone, Just Temporarily Distracted
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Well. That escalated quickly. And then de-escalated even quicker.
Oil hit $119 on Sunday. By Tuesday morning Brent had cratered 7% to $91 after Trump threatened Iran with retaliation “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if Hormuz flows were blocked – and then told CBS the war was “pretty much” complete. A $28 swing in 36 hours. The energy market is currently being run by a man with a Twitter account and a very flexible definition of “complete.”
The bear swings keep swinging – until they don’t. And here we are again, watching the market do the thing it has been doing for weeks. Another U-turn at the range lows. The huge gaps down on Sunday’s futures open have now been recovered and then some. Monday closed strong – S&P up 0.83% to 6,796, Nasdaq up 1.38%, recovering from a 1.5% intraday loss. The range is the range. Even in a war. Especially in a war.
Nasdaq is a good example of the overall environment right now – I don’t look at it regularly but the range structure is very clear over there and it’s a useful illustration of what’s happening across the main stock indexes. We bounce the lows. We fade the highs. We repeat. Picking a direction for more than a day or two is a fool’s errand at the moment and I’m not going to pretend otherwise.
VIX is still flirting with the range highs we’ve been watching. It spiked above 30 yesterday for the first time since last April before retreating to 24.22. That tells you the tensions are still there – just temporarily distracted by Trump’s Sunday evening press briefing. Don’t mistake a VIX retreat for a VIX resolution.
Yesterday was an honest account of what trading in conditions like these actually looks like. Two BO losses out of the gate on both instruments. Frustrating. Given the poor health I was running on, that was nearly enough to call it a day – and there’s no shame in that. After a short break of an hour or so, SPX set up a new 3rd BO – this time bullish – and then later a clean VWAP trade. Net positive on the day. The system didn’t need to be clever. It just needed to be patient.
Let’s see what the open brings. Trying to forecast more than a session ahead right now is not the game.
The range gives. The range takes. The range gives again. Trade the range.
Market Briefing:
Multi-Market Status | 10 Mar 2026
ES (S&P 500): ~6,812 – NATHs 7,043 – recovered from Sunday lows, decision zone at 6,711 TnT level
YM (Dow): ~47,862 – NATHs 50,611 – following ES, same recovery pattern
NQ (Nasdaq): ~25,063 – NATHs 26,399 – range very clear, bouncing range lows, -10% from NATHs
RTY (Russell 2000): ~2,553 – NATHs 2,749 – Bullish Above 2,490, PFZ 2,463, target 2,677
Gold: ~5,178 – record $5,598 hit before retreat – flight-to-safety bid finally showing up
CL (Crude): ~$88.99 – down from $119 Sunday, war premium partially unwinding
VIX: 24.22 – retreated from 30+ spike but still elevated, still watching range highs
BTC/USD: ~$70,750 – recovering with risk assets, not leading
NYSE ADD: -329 – neutral zone, not extreme in either direction
SPX TnT: Bullish Above 6,711.17 / PFZ 6,636.04 / Target 6,922.53 / ATR 80.44
RUT TnT: Bullish Above 2,490.3 / PFZ 2,463.38 / Target 2,677.33
Market Conditions
The war whiplash is doing what war whiplash does. Oil at $119 on Sunday evening, $91 by Tuesday morning. A 7% crater on a single presidential statement. Goldman Sachs had priced $14 of war premium per barrel last week. Some of that is now unwinding – but the futures curve is doing something interesting worth noting: June WTI is at $82.56, December at $69. The market is pricing this war as temporary. Whether that’s correct is a different question entirely.
The U-turn at the range lows is the recurring theme and it’s playing out again. Sunday’s gap downs – which looked like the beginning of a waterfall – have been fully recovered. The S&P closed Monday at 6,796. Current SPX is at 6,649 on the daily chart with the TnT Bullish Above at 6,711.17 and PFZ at 6,636.04. We are sitting right in the decision zone again. Target if bulls hold and reclaim is 6,922.53. That’s the pattern – test the lows, reverse, grind toward the target, repeat.
RUT is telling the same story with slightly different numbers. TnT flipped Bullish Above 2,490.3 with PFZ at 2,463.38 and target 2,677.33. Current at 2,486 – just inside the bullish zone. Uncle Russell has done this flip-flop more times than Kash has called a bottom. The daily chart shows the rising channel broken but the 30-minute chart shows a recovery attempt forming. Watch the PFZ levels on both instruments for the open – they’re the tell.
Gold hit a record $5,598 before retreating. That’s the flight-to-safety bid finally showing up after last week’s curious silence. It’s retreated from the peak but the fact it got there at all tells you real money is still hedging geopolitical risk regardless of what Trump says on CBS. Current gold at 5,178.
Crude at $88.99. Still elevated relative to pre-war levels but a long way from $119. The SPR release discussion continues at G7 level. The war premium hasn’t disappeared – it’s just been discounted by one presidential soundbite. One more escalation tweet and $100 is back on the table inside 24 hours.
VIX at 24.22. Down from the 30+ spike but still well above comfortable. Still flirting with the range highs we’ve been tracking. This is not a resolved VIX. This is a retreating VIX. There’s a difference and the price action is aware of it even if the headlines aren’t.
Bitcoin at $70,750. Clawing back from the lows. Still following risk assets rather than leading them. Not the safe haven. Still not the safe haven.
Yesterday’s AAR – 9 Mar 2026 | Premium Popper | ORB20
Yesterday was a two-act session and both acts were necessary. Act one was a grind. SPX Trade 1 clipped at -$32, -50% ROC. RUT’s sole trade took a -$10 hit at -46.4% ROC. Two BO losses across the two instruments, both early, both frustrating – and with poor health in the mix, stepping away was the right call.
Act two was the recovery. After the break, SPX set up a 3rd BO – this time to the bullish side – and Trade 2 delivered +$25 at 67.7% ROC. Trade 3, the VWAP trade later in the session, added +$35 at 68.75% ROC. 4 trades in total. 2 losses. 2 wins. Net positive. RUT sat out the afternoon entirely – one trade, one loss, done for the day.
The lesson that never gets old: the system doesn’t require you to be present for every trade. It requires you to be present for the right ones. Walking away after Act one was not weakness – it was process.
This Week’s Watch
Tonight – Oracle Q3 earnings after close. Street expects ~$1.70 EPS with cloud revenue projected +37-41%. The stock is down 50%+ from its September peak as the Stargate expansion has stalled on OpenAI financing. Jefferies cut the price target to $320 from $400 while maintaining Buy. In normal conditions this would be a meaningful catalyst. In this week’s conditions, guidance commentary on the macro environment and AI capex appetite matters more than the headline number.
Wednesday – CPI. This is the print everybody is waiting for. Core CPI forecast 0.2%, CPI m/m 0.3%, CPI y/y 2.5% against a 2.4% prior. Goldman Sachs has warned that prolonged oil elevation pushes CPI back toward 3%. If Wednesday’s number comes in hotter than expected with oil only partially retreated, the stagflation debate gets another concrete data point. The Fed meets next week. This is their last major input before the decision.
Thursday – Unemployment Claims. Forecast 216K. Arriving straight after a -92,000 NFP, any deterioration firms the recession side of the stagflation argument simultaneously.
Friday – Core PCE, Prelim GDP, JOLTS. Core PCE 0.4% forecast. GDP 1.4%. JOLTS 6.84M job openings. Friday the 13th. PCE on a stagflation Friday. The scheduling committee clearly hates traders.
Trade the price. Not the geopolitics.
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Beep-Beep.
1 – The oil futures curve is pricing this war as a temporary event and that’s a tradeable signal in itself. June WTI is at $82.56, December at $69. [Source: CME Group futures data, 10 Mar 2026]. A deeply backwardated curve – near-month premium over far-month – is the market’s way of saying it believes the supply disruption resolves. That’s a specific structural bet. If the Strait stays sealed longer than the curve assumes, the near-month premium re-inflates sharply. If it reopens, the curve normalises. The shape of the oil curve right now is a real-time probability estimate on war duration – and it’s more informative than any headline.
2 – The VIX spike above 30 and retreat is a pattern with a specific historical context. VIX crossed 30 intraday on Monday for the first time since April 2025. [Source: CBOE VIX historical data]. In prior instances where VIX has spiked above 30 and then retreated within the same session, the subsequent 5-10 session period has typically seen elevated realised volatility even as implied volatility declines – meaning the options market calms down faster than the actual price swings do. This matters for Premium Popper sizing and setup selection. Elevated realised vol in a declining VIX environment is exactly the conditions where premium collection performs well.
3 – Oracle’s 50% drawdown from its September high is the Stargate story in stock form. Oracle peaked above $220 in September 2025 on Stargate AI infrastructure expansion announcements. [Source: Oracle Corporation historical price data, public]. The stock is now near $110. The gap between the AI infrastructure narrative and the delivery of actual revenue from that infrastructure is what that 50% drawdown represents. Tonight’s earnings will either start closing that gap or confirm it. This is not an Oracle-specific story – it’s the broader AI capex cycle question dressed up as one company’s earnings report.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably!
In Other News…
Gold hit a record $5,598 before retreating. After last week’s curious silence whilst oil went vertical, gold finally showed up as the flight-to-safety asset it’s supposed to be – briefly. The retreat back toward $5,178 suggests some of the safe-haven premium is unwinding with the oil price, but the fact it reached a new record at all tells you real institutional money is still hedging geopolitical tail risk regardless of what any president says on television.
Iraq’s southern oilfields have collapsed to 1.3 million barrels per day from 4.3 million before the conflict began. That is a structural supply reduction that does not reverse the moment someone declares a ceasefire. Oilfield restart timelines are measured in months, not days. The oil market may be pricing the war as temporary – but the supply damage is not temporary on the same clock.
Seven US soldiers have been killed. Saudi Aramco’s CEO has warned of “catastrophic consequences” for global energy markets if the conflict extends. Trump is demanding unconditional surrender. The G7 energy ministers are meeting virtually today on the SPR release question. The gap between the financial markets shrugging and the actual situation on the ground remains wide.
Hazel’s Take:
Oil down $28 in 36 hours. Gold at a record. VIX still above 24. The market is not sure what it believes yet – and that uncertainty is the only honest position available.
Expert Insights:
“The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.”
Benjamin Graham
That quote was written about equities. It applies equally well to a week where oil swings $28 in 36 hours, NFP prints -92,000, and a presidential soundbite moves an entire commodity market by 7%.
The risk management question this week is not about direction – it’s about regime. Are we in a temporary disruption that resolves in weeks, or a structural shift that plays out over months? The answer to that question determines whether Monday’s recovery is the start of a genuine recovery rally or the latest in a series of range-high rejections dressed up as a reversal.
The oil futures curve suggests temporary. December WTI at $69 against June at $82.56 is the market’s collective judgement that this resolves. [Source: CME Group, public futures data]. But the physical supply damage – Iraq at 1.3 million bpd against a pre-war 4.3 million – does not reverse on the same timeline as a futures contract. There is a disconnect between what paper markets are pricing and what the physical supply situation actually is. That disconnect is where the next surprise lives.
For the Fed, the regime question is the only question. If this is temporary, they hold and wait. If this is structural, every tool they have makes something worse. Cut into inflation. Hold into recession. The Chicago Fed’s stagflation warning last week was notable not because it was surprising – it was expected – but because it came from inside the institution. [Source: Chicago Fed, public communications, March 2026]. Central bankers warning about stagflation is not the same as a market commentator warning about stagflation. It carries institutional weight.
The practical application for traders is simple and Phil said it this morning: trying to pick direction for more than a day or two is a fool’s errand in this environment. The range structure is doing the work. The Premium Popper system is harvesting the volatility rather than predicting it. That is not a passive approach – it is the correct active approach when the regime is genuinely uncertain.
[Source: CME Group futures data | U.S. Department of Energy, Iraq production data | Chicago Federal Reserve, public communications ]
Rumour Has It…
Wallie has updated the laminated chalkboard again. “1973 REDUX (I TOLD YOU SO)” now has a footnote: “TEMPORARILY WRONG BUT STRUCTURALLY CORRECT.” He has also laminated the footnote. He considers this a living document.
Kash went short oil at $119 Sunday evening calling it “absolutely the top.” He is not discussing this. The ring light is off for the first time in living memory. One pigeon is sitting on his streaming chair. Kash has not asked it to leave.
Percy has submitted a third research note titled “Why The War Is Actually Bullish.” He submitted it directly to Wallie. Wallie filed it in the bin. Percy retrieved it, laminated it, and added it to the gallery. The gallery now has 3 pieces. Percy calls it a “trilogy.”
Mac is still in the airport departure lounge. One flight has appeared on the departures board. It is going to the wrong destination. Mac is considering it anyway.
Hazel correctly predicted Monday’s intraday reversal at 11:47 a.m. She wrote the time on a post-it, stuck it to the screen, and then put her head on the desk for 4 minutes. She has asked for a pay rise. Nobody has responded.
Cachè-AI processed the $28 oil swing, the Trump CBS interview transcript, and the G7 emergency meeting agenda simultaneously and output: “Beep. The futures curve knows something.” Then printed 62 pages of caveats.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created in 1975 directly in response to the 1973 Arab oil embargo – the US government’s answer to never being held hostage by a supply disruption again.
At its peak it held over 700 million barrels. Today it holds approximately 395 million barrels following releases in 2022.
[Source: U.S. Department of Energy – Strategic Petroleum Reserve]
The reserve was built for exactly this scenario. Whether 395 million barrels is enough to move a market where the Strait of Hormuz is sealed is the question nobody wants to answer in public.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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