The bull charged the all-time-high hill, planted the flag, then slipped on a banana skin.
Most of the turn happened overnight, a pop lower in the 1.4 to 2.4% range.
Two fresh bull swings went from small green to max loss in a blink. No panic, the risk was defined.
Crude is the darling running toward 65, while Bitcoin’s neckline finally cracked.
A broad risk-off swept every asset overnight, the Nasdaq worst, gold and bitcoin falling alongside stocks and only crude unmoved. We walk the cross-asset dots and ask what Thursday’s PCE actually settles.
...Monday’s quiet split tape resolved overnight into a broad risk-off, every US index red, gold and bitcoin falling with stocks, only crude left standing. We look at why everything sold off at once, and what Thursday’s PCE settles.
...The peace deal lasted about a long weekend. The war trade is already clocking back in.
Keeping the bears on a tight leash was the right call, and it paid.
Gold banked a profit before the bell, and the %R says there may be more.
Crude is drawing a head and shoulders, with $65 still sitting on the table.
The 2-year breakeven hit a 2026 low on Thursday, the bond market betting inflation is beaten. Over the weekend Hormuz re-closed and crude clawed back toward $80. Were markets right, or early?
...The bond market declared inflation beaten on Thursday, breakevens at a 2026 low. Then Iran re-closed Hormuz, crude clawed back toward $80, and Thursday’s PCE is still coming.
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