Month end accounting, no black Monday, and a VIX up nearly 6% without a sell off to point at. Inside: why Tesla’s old support has been promoted to resistance and where the V entry targets, plus an update on Bitcoin’s rounding top and the inside day that handed out another low risk way into the bear side.
...The front end repriced hard for a description of inflation and not at all for a 5.7% jump in Brent. Working out which of those two reactions is the mistake.
...Warsh talked about inflation and the 2-year moved 14 basis points. Then a US strike on Hormuz put Brent above 91 dollars, and the instrument that prices inflation could not be bothered.
...Bitcoin has reached its short sale zone and the short is filled, so now the only question is whether the level holds. Meanwhile Mr SPX gapped higher, traded lower, then pushed back up anyway, and the system is flagging a bearish setup with a note attached telling you to leave it well alone.
...Nvidia agreed to pay $12.9bn for about $150m of annual revenue. The buyer, the seller, the customer and the investor keep turning out to be the same handful of firms. What does that do to the price of money?
...Nvidia agreed to buy a company billing $150m a year for $12.9bn, Salesforce rose 23% on an AI partnership, and ten of eleven sectors fell whilst the index closed up. Warsh speaks at ten.
...Bitcoin went for a new high, got a rejection bar for its trouble, and is now sat at the range high having failed to break up and out. Inside: where the dumb money always puts its stop, why half the pattern height is not a risk control, the short filled at 80000, and an SPX gap of around 40 points that still has to prove itself.
...The S&P future added forty points overnight after four big names reported. Working out whether that was a market moving or a weighting doing its job turns out to be surprisingly hard before 09:30.
...Nvidia cleared $96.2bn and guided to $108bn, and the S&P future added forty points. Whether that was breadth or arithmetic cannot be answered by anything that trades overnight, which is the actual story.
...The volatility expansion lasted a day. The SPX 3 day average is back to 40 points small, the VIX went for 16 and fizzled, and there is still nothing more than sput sput fizz on most of the moves. Inside: the PnF barrier at 7680 to 7700, crude back at the $80 level it keeps returning to, and the Pinocchio setup forming on Bitcoin.
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