Warsh gives his first verdict at 2pm. I’m not reading his pauses, I’m reading the tape.
The bull setup that’s held all week has an expiry date, and it’s ticking.
A right read and a losing trade in the same breath. The options game, explained.
Below one Bitcoin level, the whole bull story flips to a charge at 50k.
Is the tape pre-pricing a whole Warsh regime, a higher risk premium, before he has said a word? And does tonight’s dot plot confirm the hike the front end already believes?
...The one number that mattered didn’t move: the 2-year, above the policy rate, pricing a hike into the debut of the chair hired to cut. The rest was noise.
Tuesday split in half. The Dow set a record at 51,999.67, the Nasdaq fell 1.15%, and duration, not fear, decided who got sold and who got bought.
The 10-year slid to a three-week low 4.44% on cheaper oil while the front end ignored the whole peace story. The curve flattened on principle.
Bitcoin gave back its peace rally to near $65,586 while ETFs bled roughly $4.2 billion over three weeks. Price up, money out, decision pending.
Oil near $75 prices a peace that signs Friday, a day markets are closed. The dots print at 2pm, and the 2-year finally gets its grade.
The futures sprinted to records on Monday. The cash never quite planted the flag.
A fresh bear tag printed on SPX and Uncle Russell. I’m ignoring it, and the data says why.
Crude could pop higher first. That’s not a problem, it’s the entry I want.
Five poppers bagged, and a gap that, the data insists, changed absolutely nothing.
Monday handed us a clean, happy story: a peace deal, cheaper oil, a record Dow. So why did the 2-year spend the day pricing a rate hike into Warsh’s first meeting? Let’s work out what the front end knows that the party didn’t.
...Stocks booked the Iran peace deal Monday, S&P up 1.49%, Nasdaq up 2.38%, Dow at a record. Oil paid the bill, down 5% to near $80.
The one number that mattered stayed unimpressed: the 2-year above 4%, above the policy rate, hike odds near 80%. The front end isn’t buying the relief.
Warsh gavels his first FOMC this week. A hold is 97% priced, so the dot plot and his debut tone, not the rate, are Wednesday’s actual event.
Fox sank nearly 18% to buy Roku for $22 billion. SpaceX held above $2 trillion on day two. Semiconductors clawed back part of Friday’s brutal rout.
Bitcoin reclaimed $65,500 even as roughly $3.4 billion left bitcoin ETFs over 11 days. Price went up, the money went out, and one of them is lying.
The single best headline of the year landed overnight: the US and Iran agreed to end a fourteen-week war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks did exactly what you’d draw up. The Nasdaq gapped 1.9%, the VIX fell to 17.68, oil dropped 5% to about $80.
...A 14-week war ends overnight and the tape does not hesitate.
One of my trades could pay 12x this week. The other is supposed to expire worthless.
Crude was screaming lower for days. Turns out it was the canary.
Gamma just flipped back positive. The options map you knew on Friday is gone.
Wall Street ended a war and priced it like a tax cut. NQ futures +1.9%, oil off 5% to $80, the VIX crushed to 17.68. Peace, payable next-day.
The number that mattered was the small one. The 2-year moved five basis points to 4.035%, taking the relief and keeping its powder for Warsh on Wednesday.
Bitcoin borrowed a 2.3% bounce off the stock market to about $65,800. The record $3.4B weekly ETF outflow declined to celebrate alongside it.
Defence sold the war it spent three months buying, Lockheed off 1.5% and AeroVironment down 7%, while Asia chips threw a 12% SoftBank-sized party.
The signing lands Friday in Switzerland, when US markets are shut for Juneteenth. The only thing that trades this week is the Fed, and the Fed has read the CPI.
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