I expected the inside day breakout to fake out and turn back. It never came back inside. My opinion said one thing, the rules said get bullish, and the community pulled out premiums. Now the indexes are pushing into prior levels and SPX is at point 3, the same spot as last week before Thursday’s collapse. Here’s the jumping off point I’m watching, plus crude’s neckline break and 2 new Double Dippers.
...December crude fell 4.38% on Monday and the 2-year yield rose 5bp anyway. Today’s October CPI cannot contain Monday’s oil, which tells us what the print can and cannot settle.
...December crude settled 4.38% lower 82 minutes before the President called the Iran war effectively over. Stocks rose 2.35%, the 2-year rose 5bp, and October CPI prints at 13:30 UTC.
...Friday’s inside day came straight after Thursday’s flush, and the overnight relief rally is pushing at its highs. I’ll show you why the side that breaks first is often a false direction, what the big dawgs do with your stops when it does, and the 3 Double Dip setups I’m watching while SPY turns from bull to bear.
...Payrolls rose 165,000 on Friday and the 2-year yield rose 5bp to 4.51%, taking back 5 of Thursday’s 12bp fall. The dollar index rose 0.70%. CPI prints Tuesday at 13:30 UTC. What is left for it to decide?
...Nvidia’s board opened an independent inquiry into Jensen Huang on Sunday. At 07:45 UTC December Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.81% lower and December Dow futures 0.35% higher. Friday’s payrolls rose 165,000 and the 2-year yield 5bp. CPI prints Tuesday.
...Yesterday the markets followed Wile E. Coyote straight into the chasm. The S&P and Naz are finally out of their ranges, Russ is back in the 10% zone, and the next support on the S&P is 7300, with 10% off the highs at 7060. NFP lands before the bell. Here are the levels, and why the time to remember you ARE a trader is right now.
...SMH fell 11.21% and the 2-year yield fell 12bp on the same day, while high yield slipped only 0.31%. Is the market pricing an AI problem or a growth problem? Payrolls at 13:30 UTC are the first test.
...The chip fund SMH fell 11.21% on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 6.36% and the S&P 500 4.36%. The Dow closed below its pre-election level. The VIX rose to 28.18 and inverted its curve. December Nasdaq futures were 0.95% higher at 08:15 UTC.
...The chip stocks sold on the news before the open. The rest of the market waited for the bell, then joined them. December S&P 500 futures are 3.23% lower, December Nasdaq 100 futures 4.93%, and the VIX curve has inverted.
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