Thursday’s news moved price lower exactly as expected, and Friday brings another one. Inside: a V pattern entry sitting at the SPX range lows for the umpteenth time, futures up around 40 points ahead of the 8:30 release, a VIX that isn’t falling nearly as fast as the S&P is rising, crude sat exactly on 100, and a Popper day that was effectively finished before the US had opened.
...A wholesale print beat by a tenth and September hike pricing jumped ten points. The inflation it measured arrived by sea, and the tool being readied for it does not go there.
...August wholesale prices ran hot, September hike pricing jumped ten points to roughly 71%, and the S&P 500 booked a fourth straight loss. The input arrived by sea.
...Uncle Russ has broken out of the smaller range and 2,900 to 2,920 is now the support that decides the next move. Inside: SPX still running upper range to lower with bear pulse bars, Bitcoin going nowhere with no conviction, a Popper day of a 1DTE, a premarket continuation and one 3rd BO loss, and the biggest Wall of Wins in a fortnight.
...Six billion dollars of official demand landed on the long end and yields rose through it. The thirty-year declined to confirm. We work out which instrument was actually doing the pricing.
...The Treasury tripled its long-end buyback to six billion dollars. The ten-year answered with 4.857%, its highest since November 2023. The intervention was the news. The barrel was the reason.
...The bear moves continued off the inside bar break as called, though the whole thing is happening in a range so tight the Dow is leading the charge lower with 0.11%. Inside: why SPX and RUT still have nothing new to report, a premarket futures trigger that transformed fast, what 415 locked looks like against the 915 and 1,420 that got away, and a full Wall of Wins.
...Crude has risen six sessions running and Brent sits a dollar from triple figures. Equity volatility answered at 15.70, slightly lower. Working out which instrument is wrong is this week’s job.
...The US destroyed five Iranian tankers, Brent sits under a dollar from 100, and the price of insuring the S&P went down. Three inflation events land inside eight days.
...Back from the long weekend to inside bars almost everywhere and a VIX that jumped nearly 9% for about 30 points of ES. Inside: what more than a nibble past the lows means for which way these bars actually break, where Friday’s peak sits on the SPX swings, and an honest word about confirmation bias.
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