Crash cancelled again, and the grind continues into Friday’s NFP with the daily averages at levels that make the whole thing a frustrating experience to live through. Inside: a tight narrow range on the SPX 10 min with ADD at a bullish extreme, what the Almanac says about how midterm Septembers actually end, and a Wall of Wins that filled up anyway.
...ADP came in at 38,000 and the market still prices a September increase at two thirds. Working out whether employment has genuinely been disenfranchised, or whether we are comparing two instruments that measure different things, is this week’s whole job.
...ADP printed 38,000, the weakest since January, and the market still prices a September hike at two thirds. Either the barrel is doing the pricing or the labour market is about to matter a great deal more on Friday.
...The VIX has gone through 16 and is nudging 17, SPX is below its 2 week vwap, and the sentiment charts show something that has been building quietly since April. A handful of stocks have been carrying the indexes while the rest of the market has been voting the other way. Inside: what 7,600 signals, the Asian session break on ES, Bitcoin’s crown approaching the first assessment level, and a full Wall of Wins.
...Crude settled up 5.2% and the two-year moved six basis points, after moving nothing at all on Monday. Working out which of those two sessions was the anomaly is this week’s whole job.
...Oil surged 5.2% on US strikes near Hormuz and the tape called it the story. The number that decides September was six basis points on the two-year, and almost nobody looked at it.
...For most of this year the overnight bounce has turned up on cue. This morning it didn’t. ES has gone near vertical lower from the European open, Uncle Russ is leading the charge as usual, and the VIX is climbing towards the one level that changes the picture entirely. Inside: what 7,650 on ES actually trips, and why the inverted trend line on Bitcoin has just done its job.
...Crude settled 2.83% higher on a US-Iran exchange and the whole rates response landed at the back of the curve. The instrument that prices Fed policy moved nothing at all.
...US and Iranian forces traded fire and crude settled up 2.83%. The 2-year Treasury moved zero basis points. Three sessions earlier it moved 14 for a speech that committed to nothing.
...Month end accounting, no black Monday, and a VIX up nearly 6% without a sell off to point at. Inside: why Tesla’s old support has been promoted to resistance and where the V entry targets, plus an update on Bitcoin’s rounding top and the inside day that handed out another low risk way into the bear side.
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