Yesterday the markets followed Wile E. Coyote straight into the chasm. The S&P and Naz are finally out of their ranges, Russ is back in the 10% zone, and the next support on the S&P is 7300, with 10% off the highs at 7060. NFP lands before the bell. Here are the levels, and why the time to remember you ARE a trader is right now.
...SMH fell 11.21% and the 2-year yield fell 12bp on the same day, while high yield slipped only 0.31%. Is the market pricing an AI problem or a growth problem? Payrolls at 13:30 UTC are the first test.
...The chip fund SMH fell 11.21% on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 6.36% and the S&P 500 4.36%. The Dow closed below its pre-election level. The VIX rose to 28.18 and inverted its curve. December Nasdaq futures were 0.95% higher at 08:15 UTC.
...The chip stocks sold on the news before the open. The rest of the market waited for the bell, then joined them. December S&P 500 futures are 3.23% lower, December Nasdaq 100 futures 4.93%, and the VIX curve has inverted.
...The votes are in and all eyes are on unemployment claims today and NFP tomorrow. The S&P, NazQuack and both uncles are pushing off their lows, crude jumped straight out the window to the range lows, and Bitcoin is back at range highs. Here’s where I see the next pause point on the S&P, and the Double Dip setups I’m working right now.
...The first cash session after the midterms saw December WTI fall 8.29% on a day the wires read as less war. Spot gold rose 3.34% the same day, while the VIX fell 20.26% and the dollar index 0.39%.
...The first cash session after the midterms split the market. The Dow rose 3.03%, the chip fund SOXX fell 3.14%, December WTI lost 8.29% and spot gold gained 3.34%. December Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.85% lower this morning.
...The midterms are decided and the market did what it always does, sold the uncertainty and bought the certainty. The S&P is back inside its range, my VIX trade is deflating, crude still looks heavy for $89, Bitcoin turns off the range lows, and the Double Dip flags a fresh shallow dip on XBI, the biotech.
...Democrats won both chambers overnight. December Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.44% and recovered it. Spot gold rose 2.45%, mostly after 05:00 UTC, whilst the dollar index fell 0.47%.
...Democrats won both chambers in the midterms, flipping 7 Senate and 16 House seats by 06:30 UTC. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.44% during the count, then rose every hour to finish the morning 0.98% higher. Spot gold rose and stayed up.
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