The peace deal lasted about a long weekend. The war trade is already clocking back in.
Keeping the bears on a tight leash was the right call, and it paid.
Gold banked a profit before the bell, and the %R says there may be more.
Crude is drawing a head and shoulders, with $65 still sitting on the table.
The 2-year breakeven hit a 2026 low on Thursday, the bond market betting inflation is beaten. Over the weekend Hormuz re-closed and crude clawed back toward $80. Were markets right, or early?
...The bond market declared inflation beaten on Thursday, breakevens at a 2026 low. Then Iran re-closed Hormuz, crude clawed back toward $80, and Thursday’s PCE is still coming.
...Stocks at a Brazilian times earnings, and everyone in the coffee shop has a tip. Back in 2018 I watched three crypto conversations break out two tables over. Ten days later, crypto winter. When the people who shouldn’t be giving market advice start giving it, that’s your cue to quietly walk the other way.
...Half the Fed now pencils a 2026 hike, the committee that promised a cut in March. Stocks round-tripped the news in a day. The front end and crypto still don’t believe them. Who’s right?
...Nine of 18 Fed officials now pencil a 2026 hike, the committee that promised a cut in March. Stocks bought the dip back in a day. The only market open Friday did not.
...Warsh said good day, the market threw a tantrum, and my bear swings cashed in.
The 1-DTE overnight trades quietly beat the usual 3-DTE swings. Again.
Gold finally rewarded the patience. Right idea, and this time the right timing too.
The one day most traders refuse to touch is the one the data likes best.
Wednesday the Fed marked down stocks, gold, oil and bitcoin together. Today only equities bounced. Is the trio still on the floor because of the regime, or their own baggage?
...Wednesday the Fed turned a 2026 cut into a hike and knocked every asset down together. This morning only stocks bounced back, while gold, oil and bitcoin stayed on the floor. Why the split?
...Warsh gives his first verdict at 2pm. I’m not reading his pauses, I’m reading the tape.
The bull setup that’s held all week has an expiry date, and it’s ticking.
A right read and a losing trade in the same breath. The options game, explained.
Below one Bitcoin level, the whole bull story flips to a charge at 50k.