2 inside bars on the S&P daily, and the high’s already gone on futures overnight. The side that breaks first is often the fake, so I’m watching for the run to the lows, and the 1 move that would prove me wrong. Crude’s sitting on its YTD VWAP, Bitcoin just flicked the bear switch, and you get every level I’m watching.
...October core CPI beat and the 2-year rose 17bp, yet the VIX fell while bond volatility rose 7.5%. Why would rates carry all the fear and equities none of it?
...October core CPI beat at 0.3% and the 2-year jumped 17bp to 4.73%, but in three steps, and Governor Waller took the first one. Nvidia fell 5.47%; December Nasdaq futures are up 1.56%.
...I expected the inside day breakout to fake out and turn back. It never came back inside. My opinion said one thing, the rules said get bullish, and the community pulled out premiums. Now the indexes are pushing into prior levels and SPX is at point 3, the same spot as last week before Thursday’s collapse. Here’s the jumping off point I’m watching, plus crude’s neckline break and 2 new Double Dippers.
...December crude fell 4.38% on Monday and the 2-year yield rose 5bp anyway. Today’s October CPI cannot contain Monday’s oil, which tells us what the print can and cannot settle.
...December crude settled 4.38% lower 82 minutes before the President called the Iran war effectively over. Stocks rose 2.35%, the 2-year rose 5bp, and October CPI prints at 13:30 UTC.
...Friday’s inside day came straight after Thursday’s flush, and the overnight relief rally is pushing at its highs. I’ll show you why the side that breaks first is often a false direction, what the big dawgs do with your stops when it does, and the 3 Double Dip setups I’m watching while SPY turns from bull to bear.
...Payrolls rose 165,000 on Friday and the 2-year yield rose 5bp to 4.51%, taking back 5 of Thursday’s 12bp fall. The dollar index rose 0.70%. CPI prints Tuesday at 13:30 UTC. What is left for it to decide?
...Nvidia’s board opened an independent inquiry into Jensen Huang on Sunday. At 07:45 UTC December Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.81% lower and December Dow futures 0.35% higher. Friday’s payrolls rose 165,000 and the 2-year yield 5bp. CPI prints Tuesday.
...Yesterday the markets followed Wile E. Coyote straight into the chasm. The S&P and Naz are finally out of their ranges, Russ is back in the 10% zone, and the next support on the S&P is 7300, with 10% off the highs at 7060. NFP lands before the bell. Here are the levels, and why the time to remember you ARE a trader is right now.
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