Back from the long weekend to inside bars almost everywhere and a VIX that jumped nearly 9% for about 30 points of ES. Inside: what more than a nibble past the lows means for which way these bars actually break, where Friday’s peak sits on the SPX swings, and an honest word about confirmation bias.
...August payrolls trebled consensus and September hike odds jumped nearly nine points. The two-year Treasury moved three basis points. We work out whether that is a shrug or simply the correct sum.
...Payrolls came in at three times consensus, September hike odds jumped nearly nine points, and the two-year Treasury moved three basis points. The loudest week in months produced the smallest number.
...Annoying markets, a strong bearish stance and a tape determined to test it, with NFP due in 90 minutes and a forecast range wide enough to spin prices around and around. Inside: why the jobs reaction is inverted this cycle, the only chart currently behaving itself, and a payroll revision habit worth knowing about before the print.
...September’s hike odds fell 12.8 points on one governor’s interview and the two-year moved five basis points. We work through the arithmetic of why, and why the smaller number may be the honest one.
...Christopher Waller gave an interview and September’s hike odds fell from 63.2% to a coin flip. The two-year moved five basis points. One of those two numbers is lying, and payrolls print at 08:30.
...Crash cancelled again, and the grind continues into Friday’s NFP with the daily averages at levels that make the whole thing a frustrating experience to live through. Inside: a tight narrow range on the SPX 10 min with ADD at a bullish extreme, what the Almanac says about how midterm Septembers actually end, and a Wall of Wins that filled up anyway.
...ADP came in at 38,000 and the market still prices a September increase at two thirds. Working out whether employment has genuinely been disenfranchised, or whether we are comparing two instruments that measure different things, is this week’s whole job.
...ADP printed 38,000, the weakest since January, and the market still prices a September hike at two thirds. Either the barrel is doing the pricing or the labour market is about to matter a great deal more on Friday.
...The VIX has gone through 16 and is nudging 17, SPX is below its 2 week vwap, and the sentiment charts show something that has been building quietly since April. A handful of stocks have been carrying the indexes while the rest of the market has been voting the other way. Inside: what 7,600 signals, the Asian session break on ES, Bitcoin’s crown approaching the first assessment level, and a full Wall of Wins.
...