The single best headline of the year landed overnight: the US and Iran agreed to end a fourteen-week war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks did exactly what you’d draw up. The Nasdaq gapped 1.9%, the VIX fell to 17.68, oil dropped 5% to about $80.
...A 14-week war ends overnight and the tape does not hesitate.
One of my trades could pay 12x this week. The other is supposed to expire worthless.
Crude was screaming lower for days. Turns out it was the canary.
Gamma just flipped back positive. The options map you knew on Friday is gone.
Wall Street ended a war and priced it like a tax cut. NQ futures +1.9%, oil off 5% to $80, the VIX crushed to 17.68. Peace, payable next-day.
The number that mattered was the small one. The 2-year moved five basis points to 4.035%, taking the relief and keeping its powder for Warsh on Wednesday.
Bitcoin borrowed a 2.3% bounce off the stock market to about $65,800. The record $3.4B weekly ETF outflow declined to celebrate alongside it.
Defence sold the war it spent three months buying, Lockheed off 1.5% and AeroVironment down 7%, while Asia chips threw a 12% SoftBank-sized party.
The signing lands Friday in Switzerland, when US markets are shut for Juneteenth. The only thing that trades this week is the Fed, and the Fed has read the CPI.
The machines are coming for the desk jobs first. Here is why a second skill you control beats a salary someone else can switch off.
...⚓ Regime weathervane: The macro wind still blows higher-for-longer. The slow ship, sticky inflation plus a Warsh Fed in no rush, is pointed at a hold. Fast-tape relief rallies keep tacking against it; the front end keeps holding course. Cruise ship steady. Weathervane unchanged this edition.
...Thirty-eight TACOs deep and the tape still flinches. This one had teeth.
Uncle Russell quietly completed the move we have been calling for weeks. Now what?
Crude finally moved, and the name I gave the pattern turned out not to matter.
One open question decides everything before the bell. Reality, or another reversal?
Wall Street rallied 1.75% on a peace deal nobody has signed and inflation it chose not to notice, two separate acts of faith before most of us had breakfast.
Futures sit near flat into the open as SpaceX prepares to become the largest IPO ever, the same week chip stocks logged their worst single day since April 2025.
Bitcoin bounced above $63,700 on borrowed optimism, while four weeks of record ETF outflows and Strategy’s broken never-sell vow quietly disagree with the mood.
May inflation hit 4%, the hottest in three years, which leaves Warsh hired to cut rates and walking into a meeting on Tuesday where he plainly can’t.
A $1.78 trillion rocket debuts today and the peace remains unsigned, so Tuesday’s Fed gets to decide which of Thursday’s happy stories were actually true.
When you think bullish, the bear pulls you back in. The pattern in one line.
Premium Popper banked 4 out of 5 yesterday. Why intraday is loving this chop.
Closed my BTC bear swing at the 63K zone. The next setup forming underneath.
CL bear flag may be evolving. Still bearish below $97.
Futures left early as US strikes on Iran hit day two and Tehran answered at Gulf bases, because pricing peace works right up until the peace files for a second war.
May CPI hit a three-year high of 4.2%, burying the 2026 rate cut and handing Warsh a hike debate at the first meeting he was hired to spend cutting.
Oracle asked for $20 billion to build AI and the market docked it 10% for the audacity, having decided capex on faith is last season’s look.
Bitcoin round-tripped to 2024 at $62,200 as a record 13-day ETF exit and a quietly broken never-sell vow drained whatever bull case was left.
Oil rallied on the bombs and dipped on the rumour they had stopped; today asks whether dip-buyers have the stomach for a third surprise.
Tuesday’s exhaustion bar printed on framework cue. Why I’m not buying it yet.
GEX increasingly negative. ES down 80 as I type. Why the sell-off may not be done.
Bear targets hit across the board. RUT V-entry forming underneath.
Wed-Thu is the recovery window. CPI at 8:30 decides whether it opens.