Carpet bombing declared and withdrawn inside 45 minutes, a VIX that can’t get through 20, and the question the community asked me over the weekend: how do you trade a market that swings like this when you haven’t got time to watch it? Trade through, or go up a timeframe. The new strategy fired 3 bullish setups on the daily chart on Friday. Crude is almost at the 104.50 bull target, Bitcoin is turning off the channel lows again.
...December WTI settled 103.27, up 3.82%, and every Treasury tenor rose or held, the 2-year by 4 basis points and the 20-year by 5, with the 2s10s spread unchanged at 31. Bond volatility fell 3.30%. A level move, not a re-pricing of the committee.
...Friday the Dow fell 653 points and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1, one session after the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90% and the Dow held. Three quarters of the Dow’s fall has no named cause, two phone companies lost 8% on a reported conversation, December WTI settled 103.27, and every Treasury tenor rose or held.
...Once again the move was done overnight. SPX is bullish at the range lows, VIX is down to mild hysteria, crude eyes $104.50 and the sentiment charts are keeping me bullish for the moment.
...Semiconductors fell 6.79% and the Dow closed higher. Six of eleven sectors rose in the same session and high yield rose 0.16%. On published durations, high yield captured 38.75% of what the Treasury move implies and investment grade captured more than all of it.
...Thursday’s Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90% and the Dow closed 0.02% higher. Semiconductors took 6.79%, staples added 3.31%, the long Treasury fund rose 1.87% on double volume and high yield moved 0.16%. Six of eleven sectors finished up. Sixty per cent of the index fall had happened before the bell and the other 40.0% has no name on it.
...The overnight moves are nudging -1% and NazQuack is going quackers at nearly -2%. We’ve seen this a dozen times this month, so opinions aside, trade the setups: SPX back at the prior turning points, crude bullish off range lows, and Bitcoin playing ping pong.
...Wednesday priced calm on both volatility measures. Thursday’s premarket has equity volatility 10.6% higher, December Nasdaq futures 1.9% lower and Brent 2.9% dearer. We work out which session carries the information, and what 44 sessions say about whether a gap this steep survives the open.
...Wednesday’s Nasdaq 100 closed 1.1% higher and both volatility measures fell. By 09:15 UTC equity volatility was 10.6% higher, December Nasdaq futures 1.9% lower and Brent 2.9% dearer. The implied opening gap is the steepest of the last 44 sessions, nothing that steep has fully reversed, and the one explanation on offer turned up after the move was done.
...Directions flipped 180 on a dime again, with much wheel spinning smoke, but SPX price ain’t really swinging anywhere. Crude spiked to the range lows and the bull trade is still on, Bitcoin’s target adjusts to 84.2k, and the Premium Poppers were as fast and furious as you could expect.
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