Day 2 of show me the bear. Pre-market shows the moves already pushing below prior day’s low, and not just by a tick or two. Is the Almanac stat going to come to fruition this week? NFP on the horizon could be the catalyst that sets the tone for the month.
SPX TnT swing: bull momentum finally exhausted. %R extreme flipped from bullish to bearish. MACD-v showing increased bear momentum. Big question – 1-2 bear days then bulls wrestle back, or the real reversal? Bear break down and swing finally on.
RUT back below the range lows. Already bearish, holding the swing – as long as we stay here today the first swing win of the month is logged. Can also reload the swing.
BTC – woot woot – on a tear into the target zone given the big 60k round number. Bounce on profit-taking expected before anything else. Still have a really big target down at 50k from the Elliott Wave count made on Monday’s calls.
Oil pulled back to 95. The party invite I was waiting for.
Broadcom beat and fell 13%. CrowdStrike beat and fell 10%. The two reports summoned to confirm the AI rally turned up and resigned.
Strategy sold thirty-two Bitcoin. The never-sell firm sold. Analysts explained.
Overall – I may just get my neutral-to-bearish week still. Well done, stats.

Wall Street ignored a war for a fortnight, then noticed it in an afternoon. The Dow shed 620 points as the peace it kept pricing stubbornly refused to exist.
Broadcom beat and fell 13%. CrowdStrike beat and fell 10%. The two earnings hired to confirm the AI rally turned up and resigned on the spot.
The SPX read: oil reclaimed $97, yields climbed, and two weeks of optimism unwound before lunch. Friday’s payrolls inherit a tape that has stopped pretending.
Bitcoin hit $65,710, half its October high, while the never-sell firm sold. Analysts insisted it was planned, which is precisely what one says after selling.
May payrolls land Friday, the last number before Warsh’s first meeting. The tape priced calm for a fortnight and now owes the arithmetic, with late fees.

The moves to new all-time highs are continuing but the momentum – in the form of the range of movement – is getting smaller. Conviction is getting weaker.
Aside from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the move higher may well be happening as opposed to the resting week history suggests. We’re only on hump day so it still can stall in line with historical stats.
The main stock indexes continue to befuddle and stupify. One for the potter heads.
SPX: rising channel changing its angle of dangle. Stick with waiting for a breakout.
RUT: breakout turned out to be a false break. Holding the swing until Thursday before deciding. Range-high break = bull move. Range-low break = big picture range reversal on the daily.
BTC has fell out the apple tree missing all the branches on the way down. Looking for more shorts around 70k. Target 60k. Potential 50k. Alt-season die-hards will try the recovery story.
Oil pushing back into the prior range. Pullback to 95 would be a nice party invite.
Gold is middling and not interesting just yet.
GEX has huge bullish exposure but bear GEX sneaking in overnight – super tiny. Watching whether that increases or disappears.

Day 63 of the never-ending bull story. Price pauses briefly sitting just under new all-time highs. I once again sound like a broken record.
Three stocks – Micron, Nvidia, Alphabet – now drive over 40% of this year’s S&P EPS revisions. The Three Atlases are holding up the whole sky.
Nine consecutive weekly gains on the S&P, +19.0% from 27 March. Only the 14th occurrence since 1930. Strongest of all time.
SPX in a range – wait for the breakout. RUT in a range – has broken out. Nice and simple.
BTC moving down like a madman. Small breakout target smashed. New larger target 60k zone. Elliott Wave count could see 50k.
Brent +5% to $95 on Hormuz threat. ISM Manufacturing prices index 82.1 – rate cuts dying. Zero Fed cuts now priced for 2026.

Bulls at it like rabbits again, bonking away to new all-time highs on three of the four indexes. Right on cue for the first of the month.
VIX heading down the rabbit hole, confirming the complacency. Nudging towards the year’s volatility lows. All the fear is gone.
Sell in May and go away bucked again. May was a stellar month for the record books in this “crash upwards for no reason” economy.
SPX swings keep swinging higher. With the continued flip-and-flops, wait for the breakdown before considering a bear move.
RUT out of the MACD-v danger zone. Clear range established. Waiting for the breakout before committing to a new swing trade.
BTC has been a darling – clear bear signal on the 4hr from daily range highs to range lows, multiple continuation setups along the way. Simples.
New month, first week full of red-flag news. ISM Monday. ADP and ISM Services Wednesday. NFP Friday.

Futures up. S&P 0.29%, Nasdaq 0.57%. June opened at records on a 60-day Iran deal Trump has not signed and is, by his own account, in no rush to.
SoftBank threw $53 billion at French AI and rose 5%. Nvidia idled near $211 and watched Samsung grab a chip first. The bellwether keeps missing its own rallies.
Brent near $92.56 after a 19% May rout, its worst month since the pandemic. The rally’s secret ingredient was cheaper oil, not anything resembling actual resolution.
Bitcoin near $73,600, below every average, as ETFs walked out with $2.3 billion. Stocks made records while crypto sat in Extreme Fear and quietly counted its losses.
April PCE hit 3.8%, the hottest since 2023. Warsh chairs his first FOMC June 16-17. Markets booked cuts; the inflation data appears to have booked something else.

We hit Friday up but still sluggish. The “markets only go up” run while frustrating will eventually come to an end. I don’t believe we’ll see a complete market collapse – but a consolidation wouldn’t be unrealistic.
On a personal note I would like to see a corrective move 5-10% simply because the market needs to reset itself. The price behaviour on most of the time frames is horrendous. Very scrappy.
SPX swings flipped bullish and back to bearish just as quick. Kept my bear swing, will likely roll it today if we don’t get a down move. Lazy more than anything.
RUT still in avoid mode due to the MACD-v reading. Gliding into a BBW pinch / range – waiting for the breakout makes sense.
BTC continues its down move. Now in breakout mode looking for a push to 70.5k as the breakout target.
Last Friday of the month – can be a little scrappy.