SPX 7,519.12 and Nasdaq 26,656.18 closed at fresh records Tuesday on the day Centcom fired on Iran. The tape, having considered both, picked records.
Micron crossed $1 trillion on a 19% Tuesday move. Memory now eats AI valuations. UBS sees over 100% additional upside, which is a number that lives in the future.
Brent rallied 4% Tuesday to $99 on the same Hormuz strikes the equity tape ignored. WTI $93. The two markets are looking at different newspapers.
Bitcoin stalls at $76,800 down 1% as equities print records. Spot BTC ETFs marked six straight outflow days totalling $1.55B. The institutions arrived and quietly left.
Warsh sworn in Friday at the White House by Justice Thomas. First FOMC June 16-17. 30-year yield at 5.02% is not asking permission for cuts.
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...All four stock indexes now in sync on the charts. Premarket gap higher across the board, futures pushing for new all-time highs.
SPX and RUT both printed bear swing setups at Friday’s close. The gap higher in premarket could void both swings or set up a profitable retest.
7,500 is the GEX anchor. Massive call gamma node. Dealers may defend the level as price pushes back from any gap higher.
Brent down 9% on the month. Hormuz still closed. Third consecutive session of oil pricing the peace deal that has not been signed.
BTC finding support at the longer-term anchored VWAP. Possible inverted head and shoulders developing.
Futures up 0.6% on a peace deal that has not been signed. Brent down 4%. VIX firmer. Uranium terms and Hormuz tolls remain unresolved details.
Warsh begins his first full session as Fed Chair, inheriting 3.5% PCE and a 19-year high in 30Y yields. Markets price hold through 2026 anyway.
Bitcoin reads identical news to equities and falls 0.88% to $76,635. Six-day ETF outflow streak hits $1.55B. ETH ETFs bleeding ten straight days.
Defence stocks discover that peace is also a risk after four months of being the only trade that worked. Position unwinds become symmetric reversal risk.
AutoZone reports premarket. May confidence at 10:00 ET. Zscaler after the close. The data calendar will quietly disagree with the reopening optimism today, again.
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...Markets closed Monday for Memorial Day. Friday’s records stand for 72 hours: Dow 50,579, S&P 7,473, Nasdaq 26,344. Tuesday inherits the full weekend gap.
Trump declared Saturday an Iran “framework” deal, including Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief. Tehran has not formally signed. Sunday’s strait count: 21 versus 60 norm.
Nvidia’s May 20 print still anchors the AI tape. $81.6B revenue, $80B buyback, Q2 guide $91B assumed zero China revenue. Any export thaw is pure upside.
Bitcoin near $80K through the weekend. ETF inflows positive five weeks running. 30-year yield at 5.20% cycle high keeps duration-sensitive risk on a short leash.
Thursday at 08:30 ET: April PCE plus Q1 GDP second estimate, Warsh’s first data print. Q2 PCE consensus already at 4.5%, CPI projected at 6.0%.
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ES sits roughly 50 points off NATHs in the premarket. Uncle Dow on the doorstep of new all-time highs. The April rally lows pop-and-confirm setup is ticks from triggering.
SPX swing still pushing bullish. Another BB upper-band tag. No pulse bars in sight – the lack of conviction is the tell.
RUT remains the charting darling. Bullish TnT swing active, %R in the bullish extreme, MACD-v at the bullish extreme suggesting a wee bit more to the move.
Three Nvidia beats. Three Nvidia sells. The AI bellwether has quietly stopped behaving like a bellwether.
BTC continues to dither. The bull setup is looking more like a bear flag – the setup is still active but the question is whether to kill it early.
Nvidia beat by $3.6B, added an $80B buyback, raised the dividend. Stock fell 1.26%. Three beats, three sells. Perfection has been repriced as disappointment.
FOMC minutes confirmed hawkish bias if inflation persists. December odds at 50%. 10Y at 4.57%. Markets decided Warsh would fix it. The minutes disagreed.
Walmart beat. Home Depot and Target in-line. Consumer staples carried the index whilst tech digested. Russell 2000 outperformed at +0.93%, the quiet rotation tell.
Bitcoin held $80K through the hawkish repricing. Cumulative ETF inflows hit $59.7B since launch. Halving math now nine times new issuance via institutional bid.
Hormuz week 13. Brent at $104.88. IEA flagged summer red zone. Final May Michigan Sentiment lands today, the last sentiment read before Memorial Day silence.
Wall Street ripped 1.08% on a peace treaty that does not exist. Hormuz still closed. Week thirteen.
Walmart reports premarket. The market wants rising sales AND absorbed tariff costs. Pick one.
SPX bullish at swing but touched the lower BB without a bullish pulse bar. The lower-high read is on the table.
RUT bull swing continues. Bear TnT was set up but the trigger never fired. MACD-v at momentum extreme – a pause is likely.
BTC turned around after hitting bear swing target. Bear trend exited on %R, MACD-v turned bullish. Nice momentum increase. Push into the %R bullish extreme could see a return to recent highs.