Walk into any trading forum and you’ll find thousands of people trying to do the same job. They’re trying to pick the winner. They want to know whether SPX goes up or down tomorrow. They want the right indicator, the right setup, the right guru. They want the satisfaction of calling the move before it happens.
This is why most of them lose money.
...11 traders on the board. 45+ wins logged. 3 brand new faces. 4 milestone moments.
CK’s first real-money PPB win. Mary’s best week on record. James Davis’s 5-in-a-row. Chris Taylor’s recovery sweep.
Popper, Lazy Popper, ORB, BWB and VWAP setups all delivered across SPX, RUT, and XSP.
The system-over-opinion theme owned the week. Zach called it out loud. Phil confirmed it. Everyone else just cashed the wins.
10 trades across 5 sessions / 8 wins / 2 losses / 4 profitable days from 5 / Thursday the only red in the blotter
The week included an active Hormuz blockade, a ceasefire Tuesday binary looming, and a new SPX all-time high at 7,041.28
Monday’s Lazy Popper banked $40 at 100% ROC / Friday finished the week green on $22 and $18 at 2r
Winning ROC band held between 60.0% and 100% across five sessions that had nothing in common with each other
SPX closed 7,041.28 Thursday — new ATH confirmed — Nasdaq logged its 12th consecutive up session, longest winning streak since 2009 — Dow still below its NATH at 50,611, the hill remains
The 30-minute chart is showing a small consolidation at the highs — BB exceptionally tight — MACD-v at bullish extreme still points to continuation over reversal — bear TnT expected to be short-lived
GEX: 7,050 is the dominant level for today and the week — little gamma support below 7,000 — base case is a grind and consolidate into the Friday close
Both Premium Poppers hit their stop losses Thursday — classic setups, both failed — sloppy setups at NATHs are worth noting — defined loss, filed, move on — ceasefire expires Tuesday
SPX closed 7,022.96 – three points from the ATH at 7,026.24 – NATHs on ES and NQ this session – Russell is queuing up – Dow has further to travel
GEX 7,000 has flipped from the dominant resistance ceiling to the dominant positive gamma support node – nearly 9 billion sitting there – next ceiling is 7,050 then 7,100
VIX at 18.00 and declining – April 21 is five days away – the market has treated this as background noise and lit a cigarette
Yesterday’s Premium Poppers: two trades, 1st and 3rd BO, $9 and $7 index moves, 64.3% and 60.0% ROC – standard Wednesday, minimal stress
The $25,000 Wall Is Coming Down
Today is the SEC’s deadline. Twenty-five years of retail lockout. One vote.
Born in 2001, in the wreckage of the dot-com collapse, the Pattern Day Trader rule had a simple logic: if retail traders are going to blow themselves up in margin accounts, at least make them rich enough to absorb the damage.
Today that logic expires.
Crashing upwards — the vertical moves and runaway gaps on the daily SPX and RUT are making the chart nervous — nearly at the all-time high, 45 days down from the peak, ten days away from peeking at it
CPI 3.3% — gasoline +12% — Iran oil shock doing exactly what Goldman warned — PCE forecast to peak 3.6% April — Fed frozen at zero cuts — stagflation not a soft landing
MACD-v at bullish extreme is a continuation signal not a reversal according to 21 years of 30-minute data research — interesting and important distinction
GEX ceiling smashed to 7,000 — both walls converged there — peekaboo to a new all-time high is possible if price keeps travelling
Yesterday two poppers at 1.5r — 1st BO 67.7% ROC, 3rd BO 65.1% ROC — moderate scoring day — both green — as always waiting for the opening bell to pop some more
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock all report before the open today – Dimon’s language on oil shock credit costs is the session’s most watched signal
Goldman set the Q1 template Monday – profit +19%, record equities trading, shares still -2% – Solomon warned on Q2-Q3 inflation headwinds if the war drags
The expected pop lower happened — briefly, in the premarket futures — price then firmly broke up and out, which is the continuation the research was pointing toward
GEX showing massive exposure at 6,900 — that level will draw price like a magnet — flip point at 6,667, both walls at 7,000
Yesterday: one premium popper, one lazy day trade — data tools cobbled together, two lines drawn manually, the horror — the poppers popped regardless
Islamabad talks collapsed after 21 hours – Iran rejected nuclear commitment, uranium surrender, and Hormuz handover – Trump ordered a Navy blockade of all ships entering or leaving Hormuz from 10am ET – ceasefire dead
WTI +8% to $104.24, Brent $102.29, futures -0.55% – seven consecutive winning sessions unwound overnight on thin Asian liquidity – VIX trendline maybe a little too eager to write off last week
Straight line moves have left the indexes overextended – BB pinching again on both 30-minute charts – pop lower similar to 2 April could still develop – waiting for a clear break in either direction
TnT still technically bullish on both instruments – not holding over the weekend was the right call – confirmed by the Tag n Turn wins on Friday
Goldman Q1 before the bell today – JPMorgan tomorrow – Dimon’s commentary on the oil shock credit picture is the week’s most important macro signal
March CPI printed 2.8% headline, core 3.1% – sticky, stubborn – June cut odds collapsed from 55% to 35% in under an hour – Fed stays frozen at 3.50-3.75%
Hormuz is effectively still closed – only two tankers crossed since the ceasefire – 230 stranded in the Gulf – Pakistan hosts formal US-Iran talks in Islamabad today
VIX reclaimed the rising trendline overnight – voided for now – common infrequent short term pattern – markets keeping the bull alive despite the macro noise
Bear swings from yesterday got flipped – cost around 15-20% loss on the flip – back bullish with a Friday expiry swing – should be paying out nicely today
Premium Poppers: 1 win 1 loss but new progressive scoring turned it net positive – bear at 1.5r, reversal bull at 2r – the system is doing its job