Compression continues across the indexes, but the Dow may be stepping forward to lead the bear charge with a clear 123 pattern. SPX ran the range highs again and ground lower all day, and a push below 7700 hands over the breakout attempt. Inside: the RUT coil, the ETH/BTC flip, and how the profit got locked without a butterfly.
...Brent printed $90.03 and September hike pricing slipped 2 points. The day before, a smaller crude move bought 10. We walk the dots and land honestly short of an answer.
...Brent hit $90.03 on nothing being signed, then handed the high back on the day 6 people were killed at sea. September pricing moved 2 points the wrong way. CPI lands at 08:30.
...The 3 day ATR is around 40 points and the Bollinger Bands are pinched at their tightest contraction in 120 bars. Price is wound tight across every stock index, SPX is dinging off the upper edge of the range, and RUT is ping ponging until something gives. Inside: the swings, the crypto read, and why sideways still hits target.
...Friday’s payrolls contraction took 16 points off September pricing. Monday handed back 10 for a headline containing no news at all. We tried to work out which one the Fed is actually watching.
...Friday’s jobs contraction took 16 points off September. Monday’s shut-strait headline handed back 10. Only one of them contained a statistic, and it was not the one that won.
...Nothing weird or funky happened over the weekend. The VIX has returned to normal, almost violently, and the S&P pushed slightly higher. I’m still concerned overall, and as the first third of the month gets X’ed off the calendar, are we still setting up to meet the grim reaper in September? Or is that my fever dream paranoia kicking in? A shorter one today, because I am sick as a dog.
...July payrolls fell 23,000 and September hike pricing dropped sixteen points before lunch. The trouble is that the chairman has said the September call rests on inflation, not employment.
...July payrolls fell 23,000 and the S&P closed at a record. Sixteen points came off September hike pricing in a morning. We had spent a week arguing that could not happen.
...The markets go up and the markets go down. It is when they do it to extremes with nothing fundamentally changing that you get price extremes, and then a course correction post news. Buy the rumour, sell the news. So is this recent rally hot wind and thin air, a Fugazi? We find out in a few hours, and no doubt you already have.
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