Saw a LinkedIn post this week claiming the edge in trading is watching monthly, weekly and daily timeframes “align.” Confluence, apparently, is the foundation of everything.
Bollocks it is. 31 years in, one timeframe, still here.
Let me explain why stacking charts makes you late, not early, and why MTF confluence is mostly just highly productive avoidance dressed as rigour.
...SPX closed 7,108.40 Thursday down 0.41% / Friday futures near 7,113 up 0.07% / Nasdaq futures +0.5% entirely thanks to Intel
Intel reported Q1 EPS of $0.29 against a $0.01 consensus / stock +21% after hours to $81.12 / $3B of Tesla fab business disclosed
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz Thursday / Brent above $105 / WTI above $106 briefly / 12 vessels transited, CENTCOM turned 31 away
30-minute SPX and RUT grinding sideways in tight ranges / GEX levels match the chart boundaries / wait for the breakout rather than chase the grind
Walk into any trading forum and you’ll find thousands of people trying to do the same job. They’re trying to pick the winner. They want to know whether SPX goes up or down tomorrow. They want the right indicator, the right setup, the right guru. They want the satisfaction of calling the move before it happens.
This is why most of them lose money.
...11 traders on the board. 45+ wins logged. 3 brand new faces. 4 milestone moments.
CK’s first real-money PPB win. Mary’s best week on record. James Davis’s 5-in-a-row. Chris Taylor’s recovery sweep.
Popper, Lazy Popper, ORB, BWB and VWAP setups all delivered across SPX, RUT, and XSP.
The system-over-opinion theme owned the week. Zach called it out loud. Phil confirmed it. Everyone else just cashed the wins.
10 trades across 5 sessions / 8 wins / 2 losses / 4 profitable days from 5 / Thursday the only red in the blotter
The week included an active Hormuz blockade, a ceasefire Tuesday binary looming, and a new SPX all-time high at 7,041.28
Monday’s Lazy Popper banked $40 at 100% ROC / Friday finished the week green on $22 and $18 at 2r
Winning ROC band held between 60.0% and 100% across five sessions that had nothing in common with each other
SPX closed 7,041.28 Thursday — new ATH confirmed — Nasdaq logged its 12th consecutive up session, longest winning streak since 2009 — Dow still below its NATH at 50,611, the hill remains
The 30-minute chart is showing a small consolidation at the highs — BB exceptionally tight — MACD-v at bullish extreme still points to continuation over reversal — bear TnT expected to be short-lived
GEX: 7,050 is the dominant level for today and the week — little gamma support below 7,000 — base case is a grind and consolidate into the Friday close
Both Premium Poppers hit their stop losses Thursday — classic setups, both failed — sloppy setups at NATHs are worth noting — defined loss, filed, move on — ceasefire expires Tuesday
SPX closed 7,022.96 – three points from the ATH at 7,026.24 – NATHs on ES and NQ this session – Russell is queuing up – Dow has further to travel
GEX 7,000 has flipped from the dominant resistance ceiling to the dominant positive gamma support node – nearly 9 billion sitting there – next ceiling is 7,050 then 7,100
VIX at 18.00 and declining – April 21 is five days away – the market has treated this as background noise and lit a cigarette
Yesterday’s Premium Poppers: two trades, 1st and 3rd BO, $9 and $7 index moves, 64.3% and 60.0% ROC – standard Wednesday, minimal stress
The $25,000 Wall Is Coming Down
Today is the SEC’s deadline. Twenty-five years of retail lockout. One vote.
Born in 2001, in the wreckage of the dot-com collapse, the Pattern Day Trader rule had a simple logic: if retail traders are going to blow themselves up in margin accounts, at least make them rich enough to absorb the damage.
Today that logic expires.
Crashing upwards — the vertical moves and runaway gaps on the daily SPX and RUT are making the chart nervous — nearly at the all-time high, 45 days down from the peak, ten days away from peeking at it
CPI 3.3% — gasoline +12% — Iran oil shock doing exactly what Goldman warned — PCE forecast to peak 3.6% April — Fed frozen at zero cuts — stagflation not a soft landing
MACD-v at bullish extreme is a continuation signal not a reversal according to 21 years of 30-minute data research — interesting and important distinction
GEX ceiling smashed to 7,000 — both walls converged there — peekaboo to a new all-time high is possible if price keeps travelling
Yesterday two poppers at 1.5r — 1st BO 67.7% ROC, 3rd BO 65.1% ROC — moderate scoring day — both green — as always waiting for the opening bell to pop some more
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock all report before the open today – Dimon’s language on oil shock credit costs is the session’s most watched signal
Goldman set the Q1 template Monday – profit +19%, record equities trading, shares still -2% – Solomon warned on Q2-Q3 inflation headwinds if the war drags
The expected pop lower happened — briefly, in the premarket futures — price then firmly broke up and out, which is the continuation the research was pointing toward
GEX showing massive exposure at 6,900 — that level will draw price like a magnet — flip point at 6,667, both walls at 7,000
Yesterday: one premium popper, one lazy day trade — data tools cobbled together, two lines drawn manually, the horror — the poppers popped regardless