We hit Friday up but still sluggish. The “markets only go up” run while frustrating will eventually come to an end. I don’t believe we’ll see a complete market collapse – but a consolidation wouldn’t be unrealistic.
On a personal note I would like to see a corrective move 5-10% simply because the market needs to reset itself. The price behaviour on most of the time frames is horrendous. Very scrappy.
SPX swings flipped bullish and back to bearish just as quick. Kept my bear swing, will likely roll it today if we don’t get a down move. Lazy more than anything.
RUT still in avoid mode due to the MACD-v reading. Gliding into a BBW pinch / range – waiting for the breakout makes sense.
BTC continues its down move. Now in breakout mode looking for a push to 70.5k as the breakout target.
Last Friday of the month – can be a little scrappy.
Wall Street closed at records celebrating a 60-day Hormuz truce Trump hasn’t signed, struck hours after fresh missiles. Peace got priced. Peace did not get agreed.
SPX held 7,563 into month-end on a catalyst with a blank signature line. The only honest number on the page, 3.8% inflation, was politely ignored.
Bitcoin slid under $74,000 as ETFs bled $223M, the worst day in three weeks. The institutional bid that built the floor quietly left the building.
April PCE hit 3.8%, highest since May 2023, and the Fed’s promised cut evaporated. Warsh’s welcome gift is a possible hike at the mid-June meeting.
Friday brings month-end and three crowded bets: peace, disinflation, a dovish Fed. All three lean on one unsigned page. Pick which folds first.
Struggling rally on the stock indexes. Prices grinding higher but VIX remains elevated – there’s fear ready to hedge or unload on a hair trigger’s notice.
More strikes overnight. The same stock indexes don’t seem bothered one way or the other. Conditioned to ignore it now. It’s old news.
Oil “jumped 3%” per the talking heads. In context it hasn’t even cleared yesterday’s high-to-low range. Non-news dressed as news.
BTC being kicked in the shins. Still bearish from the larger range highs targeting the range lows. Regular as clockwork.
SPX grinding sideways with the Bollinger Bands pinching. RUT has finally exited the bull extreme but signals are whipsawing – wait 1-2 days for a clean read.
Oil jumped 3% on fresh strikes whilst S&P futures held near 7,538. Wall Street has decided the Middle East is a subscription it keeps forgetting to cancel.
Bitcoin fell to about $74,200 whilst gold sat flat near $4,480. The hedge sold off and the relic held its ground. Marketing, meet reality.
BlackRock’s IBIT logged its second-largest outflow on record, roughly $528 million in a single session. The rally’s favourite engine is now running firmly in reverse.
Salesforce and friends reported after the close; Zscaler had already fallen 20% on weak guidance. Beating estimates is nice, but promising more is apparently mandatory.
Warsh’s first full week meets Friday’s PCE near 3.3% with oil freshly spiking. A hawkish chair, a supply shock, and the worst possible timing.
SPX and Dow did what we thought yesterday – gapped higher, traded lower. SPX slightly, Dow definitely.
Nazquack and Uncle Russ decided to hold hands overnight and skip through the meadows of new all-time highs. NQ premarket already past its NATH. RTY past hers.
New SPX bear swing printed at Tuesday’s close but %R extreme says continuation. RUT bear setup ignored – MACD-v in bullish extreme is a continuation signal under the updated rules.
Oil is right on the cusp of a range reversal or a breakout. Exhaustion bar at the range low could be nullified – $80 if the channel breaks, $104 to $115 if the range holds.
BTC compressed between the VWAPs. 75K is the line. Below it, $72K looms. The H&S read from yesterday now muddied – this is why you don’t get married to pattern names.
SPX 7,519.12 and Nasdaq 26,656.18 closed at fresh records Tuesday on the day Centcom fired on Iran. The tape, having considered both, picked records.
Micron crossed $1 trillion on a 19% Tuesday move. Memory now eats AI valuations. UBS sees over 100% additional upside, which is a number that lives in the future.
Brent rallied 4% Tuesday to $99 on the same Hormuz strikes the equity tape ignored. WTI $93. The two markets are looking at different newspapers.
Bitcoin stalls at $76,800 down 1% as equities print records. Spot BTC ETFs marked six straight outflow days totalling $1.55B. The institutions arrived and quietly left.
Warsh sworn in Friday at the White House by Justice Thomas. First FOMC June 16-17. 30-year yield at 5.02% is not asking permission for cuts.
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...All four stock indexes now in sync on the charts. Premarket gap higher across the board, futures pushing for new all-time highs.
SPX and RUT both printed bear swing setups at Friday’s close. The gap higher in premarket could void both swings or set up a profitable retest.
7,500 is the GEX anchor. Massive call gamma node. Dealers may defend the level as price pushes back from any gap higher.
Brent down 9% on the month. Hormuz still closed. Third consecutive session of oil pricing the peace deal that has not been signed.
BTC finding support at the longer-term anchored VWAP. Possible inverted head and shoulders developing.
Futures up 0.6% on a peace deal that has not been signed. Brent down 4%. VIX firmer. Uranium terms and Hormuz tolls remain unresolved details.
Warsh begins his first full session as Fed Chair, inheriting 3.5% PCE and a 19-year high in 30Y yields. Markets price hold through 2026 anyway.
Bitcoin reads identical news to equities and falls 0.88% to $76,635. Six-day ETF outflow streak hits $1.55B. ETH ETFs bleeding ten straight days.
Defence stocks discover that peace is also a risk after four months of being the only trade that worked. Position unwinds become symmetric reversal risk.
AutoZone reports premarket. May confidence at 10:00 ET. Zscaler after the close. The data calendar will quietly disagree with the reopening optimism today, again.
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