Friday’s inside day came straight after Thursday’s flush, and the overnight relief rally is pushing at its highs. I’ll show you why the side that breaks first is often a false direction, what the big dawgs do with your stops when it does, and the 3 Double Dip setups I’m watching while SPY turns from bull to bear.
...Payrolls rose 165,000 on Friday and the 2-year yield rose 5bp to 4.51%, taking back 5 of Thursday’s 12bp fall. The dollar index rose 0.70%. CPI prints Tuesday at 13:30 UTC. What is left for it to decide?
...Nvidia’s board opened an independent inquiry into Jensen Huang on Sunday. At 07:45 UTC December Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.81% lower and December Dow futures 0.35% higher. Friday’s payrolls rose 165,000 and the 2-year yield 5bp. CPI prints Tuesday.
...Yesterday the markets followed Wile E. Coyote straight into the chasm. The S&P and Naz are finally out of their ranges, Russ is back in the 10% zone, and the next support on the S&P is 7300, with 10% off the highs at 7060. NFP lands before the bell. Here are the levels, and why the time to remember you ARE a trader is right now.
...SMH fell 11.21% and the 2-year yield fell 12bp on the same day, while high yield slipped only 0.31%. Is the market pricing an AI problem or a growth problem? Payrolls at 13:30 UTC are the first test.
...The chip fund SMH fell 11.21% on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 6.36% and the S&P 500 4.36%. The Dow closed below its pre-election level. The VIX rose to 28.18 and inverted its curve. December Nasdaq futures were 0.95% higher at 08:15 UTC.
...The chip stocks sold on the news before the open. The rest of the market waited for the bell, then joined them. December S&P 500 futures are 3.23% lower, December Nasdaq 100 futures 4.93%, and the VIX curve has inverted.
...The votes are in and all eyes are on unemployment claims today and NFP tomorrow. The S&P, NazQuack and both uncles are pushing off their lows, crude jumped straight out the window to the range lows, and Bitcoin is back at range highs. Here’s where I see the next pause point on the S&P, and the Double Dip setups I’m working right now.
...The first cash session after the midterms saw December WTI fall 8.29% on a day the wires read as less war. Spot gold rose 3.34% the same day, while the VIX fell 20.26% and the dollar index 0.39%.
...The first cash session after the midterms split the market. The Dow rose 3.03%, the chip fund SOXX fell 3.14%, December WTI lost 8.29% and spot gold gained 3.34%. December Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.85% lower this morning.
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