Wall Street rallied 1.75% on a peace deal nobody has signed and inflation it chose not to notice, two separate acts of faith before most of us had breakfast.
Futures sit near flat into the open as SpaceX prepares to become the largest IPO ever, the same week chip stocks logged their worst single day since April 2025.
Bitcoin bounced above $63,700 on borrowed optimism, while four weeks of record ETF outflows and Strategy’s broken never-sell vow quietly disagree with the mood.
May inflation hit 4%, the hottest in three years, which leaves Warsh hired to cut rates and walking into a meeting on Tuesday where he plainly can’t.
A $1.78 trillion rocket debuts today and the peace remains unsigned, so Tuesday’s Fed gets to decide which of Thursday’s happy stories were actually true.

Futures left early as US strikes on Iran hit day two and Tehran answered at Gulf bases, because pricing peace works right up until the peace files for a second war.
May CPI hit a three-year high of 4.2%, burying the 2026 rate cut and handing Warsh a hike debate at the first meeting he was hired to spend cutting.
Oracle asked for $20 billion to build AI and the market docked it 10% for the audacity, having decided capex on faith is last season’s look.
Bitcoin round-tripped to 2024 at $62,200 as a record 13-day ETF exit and a quietly broken never-sell vow drained whatever bull case was left.
Oil rallied on the bombs and dipped on the rumour they had stopped; today asks whether dip-buyers have the stomach for a third surprise.

May CPI lands at 8:30, seen at 4.2%, the hottest since April 2023. Warsh was hired to cut. The data appears to have other plans, in writing.
Two-year yields at 4.15%, hike odds past 70%, jobs that doubled consensus at 172,000. The economy refused to cool on schedule. Awkward for everyone involved.
Chips lost a trillion Friday, found buyers Monday, lost them Tuesday. The S&P sits coiled near flat, waiting for one number to ruin or rescue the week.
Bitcoin under $61K, ETFs down $5.4 billion in four weeks, and Strategy, the never-sell brand, sold. The believers are quietly checking the exits, one browser tab at a time.
Brent near $93 after round-tripping $98 on a ceasefire that exists mainly in press releases. Hormuz stays shut. Energy keeps writing the whole inflation story underneath.

Wall Street rebounded Monday on a chip rally led by Friday’s biggest losers. Same names, opposite direction, 48 hours apart, no explanation offered or required.
Brent ripped above $98 then sank to $94 in one session as strikes met fresh ceasefire talk. The barrel priced a war and a truce before lunch.
Bitcoin sits under $65,000, down 12%, with spot ETFs bleeding 13 straight days. Saylor’s Strategy sold coins, and the never-sell thesis became a footnote.
Money fled crypto into AI stocks and IPOs, the exact trade that cratered Friday. CryptoQuant says demand is falling fastest since Terra in 2022.
May CPI lands Wednesday near 4.2%, the 30-year holds above 5%, and Warsh chairs his first FOMC June 16. The calm is rented, and the lease is short.

The economy added 172,000 jobs and markets lost composure. S&P futures fell 2.6%, because good news now means no cuts, and no cuts means no rally.
Semiconductors led the unwind. Marvell down 16.7%, Micron 13.25%, Nvidia 6.2%. The same chips that built the record 7,600 close are now demolishing it.
Bitcoin held near $63,100, green, while blue chips bled. A record 13-day, $4.4 billion ETF exodus rolled on, and Strategy sold coins for the first time since 2022.
Brent topped $96 after Iran fired intercepted missiles at Israel. Markets called it a fragile ceasefire, which is the optimistic phrase for missiles still in the air.
Warsh chairs his first FOMC on June 16, hired to cut and handed a jobs report arguing he should not. Markets price a hold near 65%, and quietly eye hikes.

The Dow set a record on healthcare and financials whilst the chips that built 2026 stayed home. A rally led by the stocks you hide in is still a tell.
S&P futures slipped above 7,600 into the payrolls print. One number nobody could forecast now decides whether Thursday’s record was earned or merely rented.
Bitcoin fell near $64,000 as ETFs lost $3.4 billion over eleven sessions and Strategy sold coins for the first time since 2022. Never-sell, briefly.
Economists pinned May jobs anywhere from 80,000 to 125,000, unemployment near 4.3%. A 45,000 spread is not a forecast, it is a group shrug with footnotes.
The print lands at 8:30, the last labour read before Warsh’s first FOMC this month. A Fed promising to say less greets a market desperate for more.