Futures hold green premarket. Wednesday delivered twin records on Nvidia, Micron, Cisco. The tape, looking at inflation and Hormuz, decided to look the other way.
Brent at $106. Hormuz still closed. OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels a day. The IEA warned of greater volatility, diplomatically.
Bitcoin sits near $80,000 on ETF flows that haven’t stopped. The Senate Banking Committee marks up the CLARITY Act today, the first real legislative test of 2026.
April PPI ran hot at 1.4% Wednesday. The 10-year yields 4.46%. CME odds put a 2026 Fed cut at 3% and hikes at 36%. Powell heard.
Trump meets Xi in Beijing today with Huang riding along. AMAT reports after close. Two events decide whether Friday opens on records or on apologies.
Warsh faces the final Senate vote today to take the Fed gavel from Powell, with a 3.8% April CPI print waiting in the in-tray.
Chip stocks suffered their worst single-day drawdown in seven months, with Qualcomm down 13% on the day, even as the SOX held a 60% year-to-date gain.
WTI settled at $102.18 after a 4.19% single-day gain on Trump labelling the US-Iran ceasefire “unbelievably weak” and “on massive life support” overnight.
Bitcoin ETFs extended a five-week inflow streak to roughly $2.78bn while Ether ETFs posted their first negative weekly print since the start of April.
Markets now price almost 30% odds of a December Fed rate hike, the cleanest signal yet that the rate-cut narrative has fully drained from the curve.
Futures held tight pre-CPI ranges overnight. S&P closed 7,412.84 Monday on 37.8% breadth. The other 62% of stocks have questions for the print at 8:30 ET.
Wells Fargo models CPI at 3.8%, the hottest since 2023. Six-week win streak meets the data that justified none of it. Markets prefer not to look.
Bitcoin tagged $82,026 in Asia hours, returned politely to wait. Spot ETFs caught $700 million day-ahead. Funding flat. The leveraged longs are quietly reading a book.
Brent holds $104. WTI $99. Aramco’s chief executive says the market is losing 100 million barrels weekly. Trump called Iran’s peace offer totally unacceptable Sunday night.
Warsh sworn in Friday inherits Services Prices at a four-year high. BofA pushed its first rate cut forecast to H2 2027. Crypto-friendly nominee, stagflation-friendly job description.
Futures broadly flat into the 08:30 ET payrolls print. Thursday repriced peace lower because Tehran demanded reparations. The 14-point framework remains, somewhat awkwardly, fully unsigned by Iran.
SPX cash 7,337.11. Wednesday’s record sits just above. Today’s NFP is the binary that decides whether the bid returns or yesterday’s reset has further to run.
Bitcoin rejected the 200-day at $82,228 yet again. ETF flows real, $1.63 billion since May 1. Exchange reserves at 7-year lows. The structure is bullish; the chart, unconvinced.
Defence stocks down 13-18% over three months. Energy leadership cracking with Brent under $100. Five mega-caps did half the index’s recent work, which is not, technically, called diversification.
Warsh full Senate vote May 11. Powell stays on the Board through 2028. Trump wants 1% rates. Fed funds 3.50%-3.75%. The chair changes; the conviction gap, somewhat awkwardly, does not.
Records on rumour. SPX 7,365 and Nasdaq 25,838 hit fresh all-time highs Wednesday. Trump described the catalyst as “perhaps, a big assumption.” Markets, having considered, advanced.
Crude collapsed 7% to $95.08 WTI on a peace narrative. Hormuz crossings on Wednesday: zero. The market priced the deal. The Strait remained, somewhat awkwardly, closed.
AMD up 20%. Super Micro up 15%. Corning up 17%. The chip rally now louder than the war it allegedly survived. RSI above 70 flags the obvious.
Bitcoin near $82,000 on three-day ETF streak past $1.16 billion. The asset celebrated as uncorrelated rallied because oil fell. Correlation, considered, returned to its desk.
Today: jobless claims at 8:30 ET, Fed-president remarks, Coinbase earnings tonight after their 14% cut. Friday delivers payrolls. Records meet the data, or vice versa.
S&P closed Tuesday at 7,259.22, a fresh record, whilst Iran was still hitting UAE infrastructure on Monday. The tape decided peace was good enough. VIX agreed.
AMD beat by 9.6% on EPS and guided Q2 to $11.2B at 56% margin. Stock added 15% on top of the 66% year-to-date it already had.
Oil shed 4% Tuesday on Hegseth’s ceasefire confirmation. WTI $102.27, Brent $109.87. Kalshi still says 56% odds Hormuz normalises by August. Both can be true.
Bitcoin cleared $80,000 on May 1’s $629M ETF inflow. Funding rate -5% on 30-day average, which is the carry trade, not a signal. Look beneath.
Disney, Uber, Arm Holdings report pre-market today, alongside Novo Nordisk and CVS. NFP Friday, consensus 49,000 jobs, the new soft-landing baseline. Twelve months ago it was the recession alarm.