Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
We got the “boing” – but not the bounce that changes anything meaningful.
Monday opened like a trap door – gap down, quick poke near 5500, and then a full day of rallying that had CNBC anchors high-fiving like they just called the bottom of the century.
Except… they didn’t.
We’ve seen this act before. One-day rallies that puff up like a balloon, then vanish. And just like before, I’m not chasing a single green candle or headline optimism. I’m not a bull until 5700 is reclaimed – simple as that. That’s the bear flag failure point, the GEX pivot, and my personal line in the sand.
So while the crowd celebrates a maybe-double-bottom, I’m keeping my slippers firmly on the bear side of the wardrobe. And if Monday proved anything, it’s this…
Sometimes, the trades you forget about end up being the ones that pay.
⬇️⬇️⬇️ – keep scrolling for more in-depth analysis – ⬇️⬇️⬇️
This Bounce Doesn’t Fool Me – Here’s Why I’m Still Short
Let’s call it what it is: a rally inside a bearish structure. Until we break the top of that structure, it’s just noise.
Here’s what really matters:
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Monday gapped down, dropped toward 5500, and then staged a rally.
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Everyone’s calling “double bottom!” – but I’ve seen more convincing bottoms on a bowling ball.
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These reversal days have been common lately – I counted five in the last six weeks.
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We’re still under 5700, which is the GEX flip, the flag failure, and the bullish invalidation.
That means I’m still riding:
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Bear Swing #1 – opened last week, still on.
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New aggressive shorts – 10-min bearish Tag ‘n Turn below 5500 only.
Bonus: A Forgotten Trade Hit Target on Monday
You’ll love this.
I had a bearish swing from around 20 March. Honestly, I forgot about it. Wrote it off. It was gathering dust in the corner of my options book.
Then, boom – Monday open… “Order Filled”.
Target hit. Gap did the job. Payout in the pocket.
It’s a reminder every trader needs:
“It ain’t over until expiration… and sometimes not even then.”
GEX Analysis Update
- Whole and half numbers acting as support and resistance
Expert Insights: Avoid These Rookie Mistakes
❌ Mistake #1: Getting Sucked Into Green Candles
Just because the market bounced doesn’t mean it’s time to flip bull. Watch the levels, not your feelings.
❌ Mistake #2: Cancelling Too Early
The Trade’s Not Over Just Because You’re Bored
Most traders kill good trades because they get impatient.
They cancel too soon. They “manage the trade” to death. Or worse, they chase a green candle and flip bias on a whim.
Here’s what Monday reminded us:
✅ Let the trade breathe.
That bear swing from 20 March? Forgotten. Ignored. Hit target anyway.
✅ Stick to your plan, not your mood.
The market rallied. But did it change the structure? No. Still below 5700. Still bearish bias.
✅ A good trade doesn’t need your babysitting.
Set the rules. Place the trade. Walk away. Check back later with a smile.
The traders who win are the ones who stop trying to outsmart their own system.
Fun Fact
In 1999, a 15-year-old stock trader named Jonathan Lebed made over $800,000 pumping penny stocks from his bedroom… before the SEC came knocking.
Moral of the story? Markets will always reward confidence, consistency, and a little bit of cunning – but it’s the trader who sticks to a rule-based system who lasts beyond the headlines.
Video & Audio Podcast
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s.
Want a System That Doesn’t Miss?
This week’s lesson is simple:
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Ignore the noise.
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Follow the system.
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Let the trades do the talking.
If you’re tired of second-guessing the market…
If you want setups that actually work in real time…
Then here’s what to do next:
- Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1’s
- Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action.
- Get the SPX Strategy PlayBook
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.