Bearish Until Bullish: 6400 Level Target Hunt Mode Activated
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Yesterday was one of those days that looks boring until you realize it’s setting up something potentially significant. A complete non-mover that eventually developed into a textbook inside day.
We’re still seeing price hover at or near the upper side of the range and kissing the upper Bollinger Band – classic tension building before the next directional commitment.
The overnight futures have already nudged past the inside bar high, which initially looked bullish, but then started to tip over in that ominous way that makes systematic traders pay attention. Should we see the inside bar’s low taken out, this could be the indication we need to see prices tip all the way over into the end of the week.
Everyone knows about the curse of the September sell-off. After this prolonged range dance through August, could we be setting up for the monthly transition that finally breaks the sideways action?
Keep scrolling for the systematic hunt plan…
SPX Options = Cashflow Engine.
With this setup? It’s practically an ATM with a checklist.
SPX Market Briefing:
The chart is telling a familiar story with a potentially dramatic twist: range exhaustion meeting seasonal transition right at resistance levels.
Current System Status:
- Inside Day: Completed yesterday with classic range compression
- Position: Upper range boundary + upper Bollinger Band test
- Overnight: Futures nudged above inside bar high, then tipped over
- Systematic Bias: Bearish until proven bullish
- Target Zone: 6400 level as initial systematic objective
Yesterday’s non-moving action might have looked like market indecision, but inside days at resistance levels often precede the most decisive moves. The key now is watching whether the overnight futures’ tip-over behaviour follows through with a breach of the inside bar low.
The September Factor: With August firmly behind us and September historically being one of the market’s weakest months, we’re approaching a potential double catalyst. Range completion plus seasonal headwinds could create the perfect setup for systematic bears.
Today’s Systematic Deployment:
Tag ‘n Turn – Currently bearish until proven otherwise. Looking for that move lower to at least the 6400 level, then “we’ll see what we see when we see it.” No point planning beyond the first systematic target until the market shows its hand.
Premium Popper – Waiting for the algo to fire off whatever directional bias emerges from the opening bell.
Lazy Popper – Perfect environment for 0-DTE collection strategies. Whether we break down or reverse higher, the initial direction should provide theta-friendly moves by day’s end.
The beauty of systematic approaches during inside day setups is the clarity: either the range holds and we continue the dance, or it breaks and we get the directional move we’ve been waiting for.
In Other News…
Tight ranges, real tells, patient tape.
Translation: markets are moving slower than your nan choosing a Netflix show. Everyone’s pretending to be zen, but they’re just waiting for CPI like junkies watching the clock tick to meth-o’clock.
Premarket snapshot – 09:25 ET.
ES up a polite +0.35%-like it’s holding the door for you but secretly judging your shoes. NQ +0.45%, the AI hype train has pulled into the station but is now charging $200 a ticket for “second-half capex hopes.” VIX at 13.1, which means traders are back to selling volatility like it’s on clearance at Walmart. Gold at 3,532 because apparently everyone still thinks the apocalypse is trendy.
Sector rotation.
Semis mixed—Nvidia’s cooling down, which is trader-speak for “finally stopped cosplaying as a money printer.” Energy’s split: refiners partying on crack spreads while E&Ps sit in the corner, wondering why they came. Banks are flexing because the yield curve steepened by checks notes three basis points. Defensives are fading because everyone suddenly decided gold is sexier than utilities—who knew?
Earnings/guidance.
Nothing big until CPI, so we’re left with AI names guiding to “second-half back-end loading” (which sounds less like a financial outlook and more like a dodgy OnlyFans). Industrial tech M&A gossip is floating around like it’s high school prom night.
Cross-asset nuance.
Rates drifting like they’re waiting for a text back. The dollar’s softer, multinationals are smiling, commodities are preening, and credit is calm enough to sedate a rhino. Net read: buyers in control, but nobody wants to swing size until CPI drops the hammer.
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom: Percy was spotted arranging his desk pigeons into “inside day formation” while muttering something about “compression leading to expansion, just like a pigeon spring!”
“The birds have been unusually quiet today,” Percy announced while pointing at increasingly confused pigeons. “Classic inside day behaviour – they’re conserving energy for the big directional flight pattern!”
Hazel immediately began drafting emergency protocols titled “September Curse Preparedness: Shareholder Anxiety Management” while updating her coffee intake projections for autumn volatility.
Mac raised his morning whisky and declared, “My dear chaps, inside days are just the market’s way of building suspense before the grand finale!”
Kash tried to explain how inside bars were “basically like consolidation farming before the next moon mission,” while Wallie just nodded grimly, muttering, “September’s coming… I can feel it in my antacids.”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
Since 1950, September has been the worst performing month for the S&P 500 with an average return of -0.7%, and it’s the only month that has finished positive less than half the time (only 43% positive occurrences). The last four Septembers have been particularly brutal, with declines of 4.9% (2022), 9.3% (2021), 4.8% (2020), and 3.9% (2019).
[Source: Benzinga – “September Market Seasonality: Why This Month Is Historically The Toughest For Investors”]
Meme of the Day:
When the inside day forms at resistance but you’re not sure if it’s breakout or breakdown time
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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