Despite Whoohaar Surrounding NVIDIA We Only Really See +5% Move – Not That Exciting
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Well despite the whoohaar (add your own Al Pacino voice) surrounding NVIDIA we only really see a +5% move.
And while it is positive and most importantly not negative – which potentially would have brought the stock market’s house of cards tumbling down – it’s really not that exciting.
The indexes daily charts remain disinterested.
Gold’s attempted push higher fizzled.
Crude oil is in a slump – actually a slump might be an improvement.
VIX drops slightly.
Overall and looking at things in context rather than a single day or two in isolation – nothing really has changed… Yet!
SPX, RUT and the software now has a cleaner look for me after a major overhaul and are currently bullish.
Although we’ve seen this before over the last few weeks so keeping it on a tight leash may once again prove wise.
And now, once again I await the opening bell with baited breath… (possibly the garlic chicken I ate last night.)
Keep scrolling for the unchanged analysis…
NVDA Whoohaar Underwhelms. Indexes Disinterested. Bullish On Tight Leash. Nothing Changed Yet.
SPX Market Briefing:
Thursday November reviews NVDA earnings aftermath (only +5% despite whoohaar, positive but not exciting, importantly not negative so house-of-cards survives),
indexes daily charts remaining disinterested, gold’s push higher fizzling, crude oil in slump (improvement from dead duck), VIX dropping slightly but in-context nothing really changed yet,
SPX and RUT currently bullish after software major overhaul (cleaner look) but seen this before over last few weeks (tight leash may prove wise), awaiting opening bell with baited breath (which was possibly the garlic garlic chicken).
Current Multi-Market Status:
- ES: 6739.75, disinterested
- RTY: 2373.3, bullish but tight leash
- YM: 46,483, post-NVDA stable
- NQ: 25,096.75, +5% NVDA absorbed
- CL: $59.84, slump (or improvement)
- GC: $4062.5, push fizzled
- VIX: 20.72, slight drop
- DXY: 100.115, dollar strength continuing
NVDA Whoohaar – Only +5%
Well despite the whoohaar surrounding NVIDIA we only really see a +5% move.
All that anticipation. AI bubble burst or fizz verdict. Result: +5%.
And while it is positive and most importantly not negative – which potentially would have brought the stock market’s house of cards tumbling down – it’s really not that exciting.
Not negative = house of cards survives. That matters.
But +5% = underwhelming given the hype.
Sput sput fizz confirmed. Not burst. Not moon. Just… meh.
Current Status: NVDA +5% (ish), not negative (good), not exciting (expected more)
Indexes Remain Disinterested
The indexes daily charts remain disinterested.
ES: 6739.75. Kinda Flat. evening with the 100pt overnight rally
YM: 46,483. Really Flat.
NQ: 25,096.75. Absorbed NVDA, still flat (ish).
RTY: 2373.3. Definitely Flat.
NVDA earnings absorbed. Indexes shrugged. Daily charts unchanged. Disinterested.
Current Status: Indexes daily charts disinterested, NVDA absorbed
Gold Fizzled, Oil Slump, VIX Down
Gold’s attempted push higher fizzled.
GC: $4062.5. Was ready for push. Fizzled instead.
Crude oil is in a slump – actually a slump might be an improvement.
CL: $59.84. Dead duck upgraded to slump. Progress?
VIX drops slightly.
VIX: 20.72 down from 23.91. Still elevated but dropping.
Current Status: Gold fizzled, oil slumping, VIX dropping
Nothing Really Changed – Yet
Overall and looking at things in context rather than a single day or two in isolation – nothing really has changed… Yet!
Context matters. Single day reactions misleading. Big picture: Same setup as before NVDA.
Indexes still in correction territory. VIX still elevated. Gold still pulling back. Oil still dead/slumping.
Yet! = Something will eventually change. Just not today.
Current Status: In context nothing changed, yet
SPX/RUT Bullish – Tight Leash
SPX, RUT and the software now has a cleaner look for me after a major overhaul and are currently bullish.
SPX: Bullish above 6634.45. Target 6805.55.
RUT: Bullish above 2344.64. Target 2412.
Software overhaul complete. Cleaner signals. Currently bullish.
Although we’ve seen this before over the last few weeks so keeping it on a tight leash may once again prove wise.
Bullish setups have flipped multiple times recently. This one might too. Tight leash = quick exits if wrong.
And now, once again I await the opening bell with baited breath… (possibly the garlic chicken I ate last night.)
Garlic chicken. Baited breath. Same thing really.
Current Status: SPX/RUT bullish, software overhauled, tight leash active
In Other News…
Nvidia Saves Everything: Four-Day Panic Was Apparently Optional
$65B guidance destroys estimates. Markets remember AI exists. Retailers still cutting guidance but who cares.
Nasdaq futures surged 1.6% as Nvidia crushed earnings proving four days of panic were completely unnecessary and AI bubble concerns evaporated overnight. Revenue $57B beat $54.9B, Q4 guidance $65B destroyed $61.8B estimate, CFO sees $500B visibility through 2026. September jobs report at 8:30 AM ends 43-day data blackout but stale data “limits usefulness”—government finally delivers homework six weeks late and irrelevant.
When One Company Fixes Everything
Nvidia’s beat lifts entire semiconductor complex: AMD +5%, Micron +3%, Broadcom +3% as markets treat single earnings report as vindication of entire AI thesis. Data center revenue $51.2B (+66% YoY) proves hyperscaler spending real whilst everyone ignores that Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s all cut guidance on cautious consumers. Magnificent Seven rising together because Nvidia success means Microsoft and Google succeed through proximity magic.
Fed Minutes: “Many Favour Holding Rates”
December cut probability collapsed to 33% as Fed minutes revealed “many” want to hold—but markets ignoring because Nvidia guidance more important than monetary policy. Treasury curve steepening whilst VIX retreating from 18.59 as risk appetite returns based entirely on one company’s quarterly report.
☕ Hazel’s Take
Four-day losing streak erased by single earnings beat whilst retailers cut guidance and Fed likely holds. When $65B guidance makes everyone forget consumer caution and data blackouts, probably acknowledging markets trade headlines not fundamentals.
—Hazel, FinNuts
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom: Percy was discovered teaching his desk pigeons “NVDA Whoohaar Only +5 Percent Disinterested Response Flying” whilst analysing the underwhelming earnings and claiming they had mastered “House Of Cards Not Tumbling Recognition Advanced Cooing With Sput-Sput-Fizz-Confirmation Discipline.”
Hazel updated her crisis management protocols to include “Indexes Remaining Disinterested Despite Major Earnings Recognition Emergency Procedures” alongside contingency plans for “Gold-Push-Fizzled Integration With Oil-Slump-Improvement-From-Dead-Duck Analysis And Nothing-Really-Changed-Yet-Context Protocols.”
Mac raised his Thursday whisky and declared, “When NVDA delivers only plus five percent despite all the whoohaar and indexes remain disinterested whilst nothing really changes in context, keeping-bullish-on-tight-leash becomes delightfully superior to assuming-this-time-is-different!”
Kash attempted livestreaming about “sput sput fizz being basically like DeFi token launch that doesn’t moon or rug but just exists” but got distracted calculating whether garlic chicken baited breath counts as market indicator.
Wallie grumbled that in his day, earnings that didn’t crash meant “celebration not this modern underwhelmed-by-only-plus-five-percent behaviour with tight leash terminology!”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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