Back In Blighty. Bear Snap Dead. Time For The Santa Rally Hype Machine. | SPX Market Briefing | 22 Dec 2025

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: 6,834.49 – Bull TnT – Bullish Above 6800.08, PFZ 6720.43, Target 6839.47
• RUT: 2,531.16 – Bull TnT – Bullish Above 2526.78, PFZ 2487.97, Target 2541.81
• ES: 6,910.75
• NQ: 25,714.25 (the excited Elf)
• YM: 48,506
• RTY: 2,554.4
• VIX: 15.12
• GC: 4,445.8
• CL: 57.02 / 55.12
• BTC: 93,161 / 89,582 (carnage continues)

The Santa Rally Hype Machine

It’s time for Santa Rally considerations.

Which I always find fun because the talking heads literally lose their collective shit over this annual phenomenon.

And when you look at the stats? There is only a very slight bullish movement. Over the official 5-7 days post Christmas Day and up to the 2nd-ish of January.

It’s a very small time window with a very small bullish move.

The media makes it sound like Christmas morning at the NYSE.

The Bigger Picture

For myself, I’m back at the desk proper and not trying to squint at my mobile phone.

What I can see is that fuck all has changed.

The bigger picture is that we are still near the upper area of the larger range. Where you can also see a tiny small range which has been grinding itself out on 3 of the 4 indexes.

With Naz running around like a headless chicken. Or perhaps an excited Elf shouting “IT’S CHRISTMAS!” to anyone and everyone that will listen.

SPX Tag n Turn

SPX TnT turned bull on Friday while I was in transit. So I will have to wave that one from the sidelines and look for my entry point.

Although we are very close to switching back to bearish (again) and the Bollinger Bands are quite tight together.

RUT Tag n Turn

RUT is in lockstep and bullish too. The main difference being the smoother ride down and turn without the many false starts.

The Bollinger Bands are also very tight here, highlighting the lack of price volatility.

Calendar

Unsurprisingly, there is little news on the calendar:

• Tue 23 Dec: Prelim GDP q/q 8:30am (Forecast 3.2%, Previous 3.8%)
• Wed 24 Dec: Unemployment Claims 8:30am (Forecast 220K, Previous 224K)
• Thu 25 Dec: Christmas Day
• Fri 26 Dec: Nothing

Expert Insights:

Santa Rally hype season – talking heads losing their minds over seasonal effects.

Let’s look at the actual data.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained an average of just 1.3% during the Santa Claus Rally period (last 5 trading days of December, first 2 of January).

It happens about 77-79% of the time – which sounds impressive until you realise the market finishes positive on roughly 58% of ALL seven-day periods anyway. The normal seven-day average return is about 0.2-0.3%. So yes, the Santa Rally is statistically real – but it’s a 1.3% move over 7 days.

That’s not exactly “rally” territory for most traders.

Yale Hirsch, who coined the term, famously said: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
The absence of the rally has historically been more significant as a warning signal than the rally itself has been as a profit opportunity.

[Source: CME Group OpenMarkets – “The History of the Santa Claus Rally”]