Heaviest tape week of 2026 starts now.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Wall Street Pre-paid the Peace. Now It Gets the Bill. Records on Friday. Iran’s foreign minister in Russia by Monday. Markets decided this was fine.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,165, up 0.80%, fresh all-time high. Nasdaq logged its longest weekly streak since 1992. Peace optimism drove it. By Saturday, Iran’s foreign minister was in Oman. By Monday, he was in St. Petersburg, meeting Putin. Washington was somewhere else entirely.
Trump’s two-week ceasefire framework lapsed long ago. The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed despite Iran’s April 17 declaration that it was completely open. The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports holds since April 13. Oil moved on the truth instead of the headline. WTI climbed 2% Monday to $96. Brent settled near $101.
This is the heaviest tape week of 2026, and the schedule has a sense of humour. FOMC Wednesday at 2 p.m., hold expected at 3.50 to 3.75% despite PCE forecast at 3.5% versus 2.8% prior. Powell speaks at 2:30. Same evening, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon all report after the close. Apple Thursday. Q1 GDP advance same morning as PCE, after Q4 2025 was revised to a sluggish 0.5%. The Magnificent Seven sits down 11% year-to-date whilst the index prints fresh records. Wall Street decided this was fine.
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Records Hold. The 493 Carries the Seven.
Premarket green meets Hormuz pressure and a Fed that still won’t cut.
- Premarket snapshot: ES at 7,195 by 09:25 ET, up 0.7% from Friday’s 7,165 cash close and the fresh 7,168 record intraday high. Nasdaq 100 futures stronger after Friday’s 1.64% session and 1.5% weekly gain. Russell 2000 modestly higher, VIX 18.92, dollar index 98.36.
- Sector rotation: Energy bid on stalled U.S.-Iran talks with Brent up 2% near $101 and WTI at $96. Communication services in focus on Verizon Q1 before the open. The Magnificent Seven sits down 11% year-to-date via MAGS whilst the index prints records, which means the S&P 493 carries the weight investors stopped watching.
- Earnings or guidance: Verizon and Domino’s before Monday’s bell, Cadence and Nucor after. Coca-Cola, GM, Visa, Starbucks, T-Mobile and Robinhood Tuesday. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon Wednesday after-close, the same evening as Powell’s press conference, because the calendar gods have a sense of timing. Apple Thursday. Exxon and Chevron close out Friday.
- Cross-asset nuance: WTI $96, Brent $101 on stalled diplomacy; gold $4,758, ten-year yields steady. Treasuries quiet ahead of Wednesday’s Fed hold at 3.50 to 3.75% whilst PCE prints 3.5% Thursday. Markets remain confident the gap closes itself, which is one of the more optimistic positions on offer.
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Levels, structure, and key triggers for today’s session. [Read it here →]
Bitcoin Coils at $78K Whilst One Fund Does the Lifting
BlackRock IBIT pulls 89% of the weekly bid and rotation tries to hide it.
- Price snapshot: BTC near $78,500 at 07:30 ET after briefly tagging $79,420 and bouncing off it. ETH steady, SOL and XRP firm. Bitcoin up roughly 12% from $68,000 since the ETF buying streak began April 14, and $80,000 is the level the price keeps pretending not to notice.
- Flows & positioning: Spot BTC ETFs absorbed $824 million for the week ending April 24, fourth straight week of inflows. BlackRock IBIT alone took $733 million of that, ranking the fund top 1% of all U.S. ETFs. Total BTC ETF assets $102 billion, holding 1,322,094 BTC, 6.3% of total Bitcoin supply.
- Leadership & rotation: ETH ETFs added $155 million for the week, third straight gain after three prior weeks of $308 million in outflows. SOL ETFs added $9.4 million, XRP ETFs $15.7 million. XRP has outperformed ETH by more than 10 percentage points in April.
- Catalysts & roadmap: $80,000 remains the technical decision point; Glassnode’s True Market Mean reclaimed at $78,100 first time since mid-January, historically marking the bear-to-constructive transition. Strategy added 34,164 BTC at average $74,395 last week, total stack now 815,061 BTC, larger than IBIT’s holdings. A software company outpaces BlackRock.
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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