Powell’s last hold. 100 percent priced.

Stock Market Edge

A 100 percent priced hold, a successor confirmed first, and one third of the index on stage this week.

Powell delivers a decision the curve already made. Warsh abolishes the format on Wednesday afternoon.

1. Index snapshot: S&P closed Monday at 7,173.91, a record narrow enough to fit inside thirteen tickers. Nasdaq 24,887.10, also record. Dow lost 62.92, presumably out of habit. ES futures little changed Tuesday. Dow futures up 64. Ten of those Monday names hit all-time highs. Of the full 500, only 188 climbed last week against 406 the first week of April.
2. The Fed window: Two-day FOMC opens. Wednesday 2:00 PM statement, Powell at 2:30. Hold priced at 100 percent. The Senate Banking Committee confirms his successor at 10:00 AM, four and a half hours earlier. Warsh wants smaller balance sheet, different inflation framework, no more regular pressers. The format may not survive the farewell. The man may not survive his own format.
3. Earnings cluster: UPS, GM, Coca-Cola, Visa, Spotify, T-Mobile, Booking before the bell. Starbucks, Robinhood after. Wednesday night brings MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL, QCOM. AAPL Thursday. The seven names that dragged MAGS down 11 percent year to date are about to tell the rest of the year what AI capex actually buys, presumably in the same tone.
4. Energy and breadth: Brent up 2.75 percent Monday to $108.23. Iran offered Hormuz back; Trump told them to call. Goldman marked up oil forecasts Sunday. SPX RSI near 70. Chip RSI past 85. The breadth is leaving the room with its coat on.

---

📊 Want the full SPX Analysis Edge?
My morning analysis briefing breaks down the technicals, key levels, and what I’m watching today. [Read it here →]

---

Crypto Market Edge

Eight days, $2.1 billion in, exactly $0 above $78K.

BlackRock fills the orders. Bitcoin’s long-term holders use them as the exit.

1. Price snapshot: Bitcoin pinned $77,500-$78,500 Monday. Eight straight days of US spot ETF inflows totaling $2.10 billion through April 23. Cumulative since launch $58 billion. AUM $102 billion, equal to 6.5 percent of BTC market cap. Bitcoin moved 12 percent from $68K to $77K during the streak, then stopped exactly where the bouncer told it to.
2. Flows and positioning: BlackRock’s IBIT pulled $167.5 million on April 23 alone, roughly 75 percent of the daily lift. Top 1 percent of all ETFs by flow. Fidelity’s FBTC was the only meaningful outflow at $16.9 million, presumably for plot variety. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT booked $71 million in its first full week. The advisor channel arrived. The price did not notice.
3. Leadership and rotation: Ether outperformed Bitcoin by four percentage points in mid-April. ETH ETFs hit cumulative $11.68 billion. Weekly inflows $187 million, 2026’s strongest. ETH transactions up 41 percent week over week. Stablecoin volume down 42.6 percent. Activity doubled. Economic content halved. Make of that what you will.
4. Catalysts and roadmap: Glassnode True Market Mean reclaimed at $78,100, first time since mid-January. Concentrated short stack above $78,000. Bitcoin futures open interest down 6 percent in 24 hours. Negative funding returning. Powell speaks Wednesday afternoon. The institutional bid is real. So is the exit on the other side. $80,000 is the bouncer.

---

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• Powell delivers a 100 percent priced hold Wednesday. Twelve voting members, two days, one statement, all to confirm what the curve filled in by Friday. The eulogy is the trade.
• Five Mag 7 land Wednesday night. The names that dragged MAGS to minus 11 percent year to date now tell the rest of the year what AI capex actually buys.
• SPX 7,173.91, record made by thirteen. Of 500 names, 188 climbed last week, against 406 the first week of April. The S&P 500 is increasingly an S&P 13.
• Brent $108. Iran offered Hormuz back. Trump declined. Goldman raised oil forecasts Sunday morning. Investment banks now charging for the war they couldn’t price the first time.
• BTC $77,500. Eight days, $2.1 billion in, BlackRock 75 percent. Bitcoin moved from $68K to $77K, then stopped exactly where $80,000 told it to stop.