Narrative Noise vs. System Clarity
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
It’s always entertaining to see how after-the-fact analysis gets twisted into a narrative.
Thursday’s headlines had it all:
Trump vs Powell – again.
Tariff rumours whiplashing sentiment.
Flat Dow, mild SPX/Nasdaq gains… so, was it bullish?
Not quite.
See, while the news machine scrambled for reasons, price was already voting. And we were watching.
Pre-market looked hopeful for the bulls. But by the end of the opening rotation, it was crystal:
More downside potential, less upside conviction.
5400? Rejected.
Pulse bar? Absent.
But that beautiful v-shaped pivot? Picture perfect.
So, we leaned in. Flipped bias. Took the trade. Reviewed it later in the blog.
And as the great Gann said – always be ready to change your mind (especially when the market changes its tone).
Let’s break it down.
⬇️⬇️⬇️ – keep scrolling for more in-depth analysis – ⬇️⬇️⬇️
SPX. 30 Minutes. One Trade. Job Done.
Trade less. Profit more. This isn’t trading… it’s income engineering.
SPX Market Outlook – Structure Rejected, Futures Rolling
While the headlines continue to spin post-news confusion, the price action remains our guide.
Yesterday, we came into the session prepared for a bullish continuation, but 5400 acted as a firm barrier once again.
The daily chart showed a clear rejection, and despite the bullish lean in the morning, the structure leaned bearish by session’s end.
Now, as I write this before the cash open, overnight futures are pushing lower, indicating potential follow-through.
That doesn’t confirm anything just yet – but it does tilt the bias.
Here’s what I’m watching:
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5400 = still key resistance
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5300 = GEX flip level – will reassess bearish view if we break and hold below it
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5000 remains the target for the Wolfe pattern continuation
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Upper Bollinger tag is in – another technical sign of short-term exhaustion
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No bear pulse bar yet, but a clean V-shaped reversal is visible on the chart
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ADD remains near bull extreme – offering more bear potential than bull in the short term
Bias remains bearish below 5300, and I’ll reassess to add in below that level.
GEX Analysis Update
- 5500 – 5400 – 5350 all look interesting levels
- 5300 is the current flip point
Expert Insights: Gann’s Golden Reminder
“Always be prepared to change your mind.” – W.D. Gann (kinda’)
The real skill isn’t predicting the market.
It’s knowing when the evidence has changed – and acting fast.
This is the essence of rule-based trading. No emotion. No debate.
Just: signal → action → review → repeat.
Traders lose when they hold onto the shoulds instead of reacting to the happening.
If your system flips bias mid-session – good. That means it works.
Rumour Has It… (100% satire)
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Trump was overheard saying, “Maybe Powell’s alright. Maybe.” Dow gained 0.3% and then shrugged.
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5400 is reportedly suing for emotional damages after being rejected for the third time this month.
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A Wolfe Wave ghost briefly appeared on the chart, waved, and vanished near 5300.
(This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.)
Fun Fact – News Always Arrives After Price
Markets don’t wait for clarity.
They move first, then the headlines scramble to explain why.
The pattern is timeless:
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Price shifts.
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Smart traders react.
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Media catches up.
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Retail says, “Oh, THAT’S why.”
Yesterday was no exception.
So if the news says “flat and uncertain,” but the chart shows a failed breakout, don’t wait for a CNBC blessing to press the button.
The system already said what it needed to say.
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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