Wall Street threw a record-closing party. Futures sobered up by morning. S&P -0.53%, Nasdaq -0.76%, Dow -0.33%. The records held for one session.
Powell exits. Warsh inherits the hottest CPI in three years. April print at 3.8% y/y. Energy 17.9%. Gasoline 28.4%. The dovish nominee, boxed in by data.
Hormuz stays shut. OPEC at a 20-year low. Silver fell 6.65% anyway. The supply crisis is two months old. The market has stopped finding it interesting.
Nvidia sold H200 chips to China during a state visit and an active war. Stock +4.4%, +15% on the month. Sanctions are flexible when AI is involved.
Bitcoin held $80,900 whilst equities wavered. ETH stuck under $2,400. ETF inflows ran a fourth straight positive week. The Clarity Act passed committee on a noisy news day.
SPX and NazQuack twin records Wednesday, both back at fresh NATHs in pre-market / Dow and RUT lagging again
BTC joins the desk: 4hr triangle or descending channel, bearish on the pattern / daily needs $82k for bullish positions
SPX big bull swing intact / GEX 7,500 huge node, 7,450 minor / dealer-set range zones for the day
RUT inside-day setup: first break often false / TnT remains bearish / HOD break then lower expected
Futures hold green premarket. Wednesday delivered twin records on Nvidia, Micron, Cisco. The tape, looking at inflation and Hormuz, decided to look the other way.
Brent at $106. Hormuz still closed. OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels a day. The IEA warned of greater volatility, diplomatically.
Bitcoin sits near $80,000 on ETF flows that haven’t stopped. The Senate Banking Committee marks up the CLARITY Act today, the first real legislative test of 2026.
April PPI ran hot at 1.4% Wednesday. The 10-year yields 4.46%. CME odds put a 2026 Fed cut at 3% and hikes at 36%. Powell heard.
Trump meets Xi in Beijing today with Huang riding along. AMAT reports after close. Two events decide whether Friday opens on records or on apologies.
Tuesday: SPX -0.16% / NazQuack -0.71% / Dow +0.11% / Qualcomm -13% / SOX -5% worst in 7 months
Correction lasted the morning, then turned around: SPX and Nazquack already premarket-running for NATHs again
RUT pushed BB high to low / MACD-V extreme at the reaction / no Pulse Bars yet / narrow ranging day suggested by daily
GEX 7,400 / 7,450 / 7,500 frame the day’s potential range. Warsh sworn in. December hike odds 30%
Warsh faces the final Senate vote today to take the Fed gavel from Powell, with a 3.8% April CPI print waiting in the in-tray.
Chip stocks suffered their worst single-day drawdown in seven months, with Qualcomm down 13% on the day, even as the SOX held a 60% year-to-date gain.
WTI settled at $102.18 after a 4.19% single-day gain on Trump labelling the US-Iran ceasefire “unbelievably weak” and “on massive life support” overnight.
Bitcoin ETFs extended a five-week inflow streak to roughly $2.78bn while Ether ETFs posted their first negative weekly print since the start of April.
Markets now price almost 30% odds of a December Fed rate hike, the cleanest signal yet that the rate-cut narrative has fully drained from the curve.
Kelconway opened a real-money account after 77% across 48 paper trades and booked +$247.56 on the first trade
Sully80908 ran Phil’s ORB60 system live for three weeks – 75% win rate, P/L over $700, backtest held
Michael S. delivered the most consistent ledger of the week – five sessions, RUT BO1 carrying the workload
Richard H. flagged GEX pin at 7400 and 30% ATR early – sat out the SPX PPs – the 15:30 hammer would have taken him out