Is the tape pre-pricing a whole Warsh regime, a higher risk premium, before he has said a word? And does tonight’s dot plot confirm the hike the front end already believes?
...The one number that mattered didn’t move: the 2-year, above the policy rate, pricing a hike into the debut of the chair hired to cut. The rest was noise.
Tuesday split in half. The Dow set a record at 51,999.67, the Nasdaq fell 1.15%, and duration, not fear, decided who got sold and who got bought.
The 10-year slid to a three-week low 4.44% on cheaper oil while the front end ignored the whole peace story. The curve flattened on principle.
Bitcoin gave back its peace rally to near $65,586 while ETFs bled roughly $4.2 billion over three weeks. Price up, money out, decision pending.
Oil near $75 prices a peace that signs Friday, a day markets are closed. The dots print at 2pm, and the 2-year finally gets its grade.
The futures sprinted to records on Monday. The cash never quite planted the flag.
A fresh bear tag printed on SPX and Uncle Russell. I’m ignoring it, and the data says why.
Crude could pop higher first. That’s not a problem, it’s the entry I want.
Five poppers bagged, and a gap that, the data insists, changed absolutely nothing.
Monday handed us a clean, happy story: a peace deal, cheaper oil, a record Dow. So why did the 2-year spend the day pricing a rate hike into Warsh’s first meeting? Let’s work out what the front end knows that the party didn’t.
...Stocks booked the Iran peace deal Monday, S&P up 1.49%, Nasdaq up 2.38%, Dow at a record. Oil paid the bill, down 5% to near $80.
The one number that mattered stayed unimpressed: the 2-year above 4%, above the policy rate, hike odds near 80%. The front end isn’t buying the relief.
Warsh gavels his first FOMC this week. A hold is 97% priced, so the dot plot and his debut tone, not the rate, are Wednesday’s actual event.
Fox sank nearly 18% to buy Roku for $22 billion. SpaceX held above $2 trillion on day two. Semiconductors clawed back part of Friday’s brutal rout.
Bitcoin reclaimed $65,500 even as roughly $3.4 billion left bitcoin ETFs over 11 days. Price went up, the money went out, and one of them is lying.
The single best headline of the year landed overnight: the US and Iran agreed to end a fourteen-week war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks did exactly what you’d draw up. The Nasdaq gapped 1.9%, the VIX fell to 17.68, oil dropped 5% to about $80.
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