ADP printed 38,000, the weakest since January, and the market still prices a September hike at two thirds. Either the barrel is doing the pricing or the labour market is about to matter a great deal more on Friday.
...The VIX has gone through 16 and is nudging 17, SPX is below its 2 week vwap, and the sentiment charts show something that has been building quietly since April. A handful of stocks have been carrying the indexes while the rest of the market has been voting the other way. Inside: what 7,600 signals, the Asian session break on ES, Bitcoin’s crown approaching the first assessment level, and a full Wall of Wins.
...Crude settled up 5.2% and the two-year moved six basis points, after moving nothing at all on Monday. Working out which of those two sessions was the anomaly is this week’s whole job.
...Oil surged 5.2% on US strikes near Hormuz and the tape called it the story. The number that decides September was six basis points on the two-year, and almost nobody looked at it.
...For most of this year the overnight bounce has turned up on cue. This morning it didn’t. ES has gone near vertical lower from the European open, Uncle Russ is leading the charge as usual, and the VIX is climbing towards the one level that changes the picture entirely. Inside: what 7,650 on ES actually trips, and why the inverted trend line on Bitcoin has just done its job.
...Crude settled 2.83% higher on a US-Iran exchange and the whole rates response landed at the back of the curve. The instrument that prices Fed policy moved nothing at all.
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