Bearish Breakout Still Active Despite Knee-Knocking Whipsaws – System Doing Job Properly
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Let’s get into the meat of it. I’ve neglected the SPX Income System for a few days, but the reality is there are only so many ways to say the bearish breakout is still active and the system remains bearish and is doing its job properly despite the knee-knocking whipsaws.
The Lazy and Premium Poppers are popping premiums nicely and ticking over. So it’s just a case of being mechanical and not trying to bugger around too much in a currently weird market environment.
Which I’ve also mentioned during my live mastermind & 1-2-1 calls for my insiders groups as being similar to past market tops, prior to corrective moves, when you see weird and funky behaviour.
This is also another reason why I’m taking a step back and focusing on the daily charts and the Mag7 for additional cross-market clues.
Uncle Russell (RTY) continues to lead the bear charge with ES now a close second after yesterday’s pop lower. YM is trying to find support at the prior NATH resistance around 47,200. NQ is now also back inside the established containment area and is challenging its breakout with the prior NATH resistance acting as support for all 3.
Overnight, we can see that the premarket has peekabooed below those levels, and we could be opening up with more thoughts of moving lower.
Clues on the Mag7 and Nasdaq – which has been propping the market up mostly with the AI hype.
Keep scrolling for the weird & funky market top behaviour analysis…
System Stays Mechanical. Poppers Pop. Leaders Tip Over. Weirdness Intensifies.
SPX Market Briefing:
Wednesday November delivers weird and funky market top behaviour as bearish breakout remains active despite knee-knocking whipsaws, Uncle Russell leads bear charge with ES close second, YM finding support at 47,200, NQ back inside containment, whilst Mag7 leaders tip over (META bear 600% ROC, AMZN abandoned baby pattern, NVDA chart-gasm setup) and Premium/Lazy Poppers tick over mechanically without buggering around.
Current Multi-Market Status:
- ES: 6791.00, close second to Uncle Russell in bear charge after yesterday’s pop lower
- RTY: 2439.7, leading bear charge as anticipated
- YM: 47,228, trying to find support at prior NATH resistance ~47,200
- NQ: 25,491.12, back inside established containment, challenging breakout
- CL: $60.87, still hovering above $60 target
- GC: $3979.3, continuing sideways stall
- VIX: 19.47, elevated maintaining tension
- 2yr Bonds: 3.560%
Only So Many Ways To Say “System Still Bearish”
Let’s get into the meat of it.
I’ve neglected the SPX Income System for a few days. Not because anything’s broken. Not because the system stopped working. But because there are only so many ways to say “the bearish breakout is still active and the system remains bearish and is doing its job properly.”
Despite the knee-knocking whipsaws.
This is the part where newer systematic traders struggle. The whipsaws test conviction. Markets don’t move in straight lines. Bearish breakouts don’t crash 5% daily for weeks. They grind. They whipsaw. They create doubt.
“Maybe the breakout failed?”
“Maybe we should switch to bullish?”
“Maybe the system’s wrong this time?”
The system isn’t wrong. The system is mechanical.
Bearish breakout still active. Targets not yet reached. Mechanical rules say stay bearish. So we stay bearish. Despite the knee-knocking whipsaws trying to shake us out.
This is literally what “systematic discipline” means. Following the rules when they’re uncomfortable. Executing mechanical positioning when emotions scream otherwise.
The Lazy and Premium Poppers are popping premiums nicely and ticking over. Collection continues. Theta erodes. 0-DTE opportunities develop. PopPop.
So it’s just a case of being mechanical and not trying to bugger around too much in a currently weird market environment.
When markets act weird, systematic traders don’t try to outsmart them. We execute mechanical rules. We collect premium where setups trigger. We wait for confirmation on larger positions. We don’t bugger around trying to predict what weirdness does next.
Current Status: Bearish breakout active despite whipsaws, system mechanical not emotional, Premium/Lazy Poppers ticking over, not buggering around
Weird & Funky Behaviour – Similar To Past Market Tops
Which I’ve also mentioned during my live mastermind & 1-2-1 calls for my insiders groups: This current market environment is similar to past market tops, prior to corrective moves, when you see weird and funky behaviour.
What does “weird and funky” mean?
Divergences intensifying:
- Mag7 propping entire market whilst breadth weakens
- Uncle Russell leading lower whilst Nasdaq holds higher
- Small-caps showing distribution whilst large-caps hesitate
- Leadership narrowing to handful of names
Whipsaw action increasing:
- Gaps that fill immediately
- Breakdowns that bounce
- Breakouts that fail
- Intraday reversals without clear catalysts
Technical patterns breaking down:
- Support levels cracking then recovering
- Resistance levels breaking then reversing
- Range boundaries becoming unreliable
- Volatility expansion without clear direction
This doesn’t mean “crash imminent.” It means the market’s showing topping behaviour that ive seen several time prior to a corrective move. Distribution under the surface. Leadership exhaustion. Defensive positioning creeping in.
Past market tops before corrective moves showed similar patterns:
2007/08 November highs – multiple false breaks, breadth weakness, weird whipsaws for weeks before correction/crash
2018 March & Sept highs – Similar divergences, defensive rotation, weirdness before selloff(s)
2020 March highs – Tech leadership exhaustion, small-caps leading lower, funkiness before pullback
Not predicting crash. Not calling exact top. Just noting: The current environment rhymes with past topping patterns.
This is also another reason why I’m taking a step back and focusing on the daily charts and the Mag7 for additional cross-market clues.
When intraday action gets choppy and weird, zooming out to daily charts provides clarity. When index-level analysis gets muddied, examining individual Mag7 leaders reveals distribution patterns.
Current Status: Weird funky market environment similar to past tops, divergences intensifying, whipsaws increasing, focusing on daily charts and Mag7 clues
Uncle Russell Leads, ES Second, YM Support, NQ Contained
Uncle Russell (RTY) continues to lead the bear charge.
2439.7 and heading lower. Russell’s not hesitating anymore. Not standing around campfires. Leading the journey south with conviction.
ES now a close second after yesterday’s pop lower.
6791.00 – finally following Uncle Russell’s lead. Tuesday’s “off white” vindication continued Wednesday. Gap-down delivered. Bear positioning validated. ES joining the party.
YM is trying to find support at the prior NATH resistance around 47,200.
Current: 47,228. Barely holding above that key level. Prior resistance becomes support – classic technical pattern. But will it hold? Or will Dow follow Russell and ES south?
The premarket action suggests testing continues. Support isn’t guaranteed just because a level exists. Markets test. Markets probe. Markets break when selling pressure exceeds buying support.
NQ is now also back inside the established containment area and is challenging its breakout.
25,491.12 – Nasdaq back inside the box. The caffeinated cousin who was howling at the moon? Back inside containment. The prior NATH resistance acting as support for all 3 (YM, ES, NQ).
This is the critical juncture: All three major indexes testing prior resistance-turned-support simultaneously. Uncle Russell already broke through and is leading lower. Will the others follow?
Overnight, we can see that the premarket has peekabooed below those levels.
“Peekabooed” – perfect description. Not a decisive break. Just… peeking below. Testing. Probing. Seeing if support buyers show up or if sellers push through.
And we could be opening up with more thoughts of moving lower.
Gap-down potential round two. Tuesday delivered off white Tuesday. Wednesday might deliver “Weird Wednesday” with another gap testing support levels across all major indexes.
Systematic traders don’t predict which way the open resolves. We position for both scenarios. Gap holds support? Reversal setups ready. Gap breaks through? Bear continuation confirmed.
Current Status: Uncle Russell leading 2439.7, ES close second 6791, YM testing support 47,228, NQ back inside containment 25,491, premarket peekabooed below levels
Mag7 Tipping Over – AI Hype Prop Weakening
Clues on the Mag7 and Nasdaq – which has been propping the market up mostly with the AI hype.
This is where it gets interesting. The systematic approach to understanding market tops: Watch what’s been leading. When leaders weaken, the market follows.
Mag7 has been the leadership. AI infrastructure spending narrative. AWS growth. Cloud revenue. Nvidia chips. The entire bull case rested on these 7 names.
Now they’re tipping over. One by one. Or stalling. Or showing distribution patterns.
META was first to fall from grace.
Halloween massacre: -11% worst drop in 3 years on 2026 capex warning. That wasn’t a one-day anomaly. That was the market questioning the AI spending thesis.
My bear shorts discussed last week are looking very healthy and nudging at the 600% ROC level.
600%. Six times the purchase price. This is what happens when you position systematically for technical breakdown and fundamentals cooperate. The speculative bear from Monday’s group call? Spectacularly validated.
META currently around $628 (from images showing support zone). The bear positioning from $740-750 levels catching the entire move lower. Mechanical entry. Technical setup. Systematic execution. Now approaching 600% return on capital. – We’re only half way there!
This is the reward for taking technically-sound speculative positions when setup criteria trigger.
AMZN gap down at the open yesterday had the potential to create a rare “abandoned baby” pattern with a gap up and gap down.
Abandoned baby pattern: Rare candlestick formation showing dramatic reversal. Gap up (enthusiasm), then gap down (panic), creating “abandoned” candle in between with gaps both sides.
It’s there just looking at the closing pricing, but did fill the up and down “window” early in the morning closing below the lows.
So not a perfect abandoned baby. The gaps filled intraday. But the spirit of the pattern remains: Dramatic reversal. Gap enthusiasm followed by gap panic. Distribution signal.
I’ve taken a bear setup as a B- setup rather than the A+ setup I was hoping for.
This is systematic discipline in action. The pattern isn’t perfect (gaps filled = B- not A+). But the distribution signal is clear. So position accordingly. Not with A+ conviction. With B- conviction. Size accordingly. Manage risk accordingly.
Perfect setups get full position size. Imperfect setups get reduced size. This is how systematic traders manage risk without abandoning opportunities.
NVDA has this lovely tweezer top / bull horn / mini double top – (pick your favourite name) which I’m sure someone is losing their mind over with a little chart ‘gasm.
“Chart-gasm” – perfect description of pattern recognition obsession. Technical analysts see double tops and lose their minds. “It’s a tweezer! It’s a bull horn! It’s a mini double top! This confirms EVERYTHING!”
Calm down. It’s a potential reversal pattern at highs. Could work. Could fail. Manage risk either way.
I’ve taken a speculative punt on it prior to earnings.
Speculative = small position, defined risk, pre-earnings setup. NVDA reports earnings soon. Playing for potential topping pattern before earnings catalyst. Could work beautifully. Could get crushed by earnings beat.
This is the systematic approach: Take technically-sound speculative positions with appropriate sizing and risk management. Don’t bet the farm. Don’t ignore the setup either.
The other leaders are also starting to tip over or stall, so it will be interesting to see what the indexes do when they all align with each other again.
Apple, Google, Microsoft – all showing stalling patterns or distribution. When all 7 leaders align bearishly, the indexes will follow. Uncle Russell’s already leading. ES following. YM and NQ testing. Mag7 tipping.
The alignment is coming. That’s when the weird and funky behaviour resolves into clear directional move.
Current Status: META bear 600% ROC from $740-750 entry, AMZN abandoned baby B- setup, NVDA chart-gasm speculative punt pre-earnings, other Mag7 leaders tipping/stalling, alignment approaching
Being Mechanical Not Buggering Around
So it’s just a case of being mechanical and not trying to bugger around too much in a currently weird market environment.
This sentence captures the entire systematic philosophy:
“Being mechanical” = Following the rules regardless of emotions, whipsaws, or weirdness
“Not trying to bugger around” = Don’t overtrade, don’t chase, don’t predict, don’t outsmart yourself
“Weird market environment” = Acknowledge reality without letting it derail discipline
When markets act weird, most traders:
- Overtrade trying to catch every move
- Chase setups that don’t quite trigger
- Predict what weirdness means
- Abandon systems for discretionary guessing
Systematic traders:
- Execute mechanical rules when criteria trigger
- Pass on imperfect setups (or size down like AMZN B-)
- Wait for alignment confirmation
- Trust the process through weirdness
The Lazy and Premium Poppers are popping premiums nicely and ticking over.
0-DTE collection continues. Volatility expansion creates opportunities. VIX at 19.47 means premium available. Mechanical entry criteria triggering. PopPop collection proceeding.
This is the advantage of multi-strategy approach: When swing trades are grinding through whipsaws, short-term premium collection keeps producing. When markets are weird and directional conviction is low, theta collection provides consistent income.
Bearish breakout still active. Targets not reached. System stays bearish. But Premium/Lazy Poppers don’t care about directional bias. They collect premium from volatility regardless.
Current Status: Mechanical execution maintained, not buggering around with overtrading, Premium/Lazy Poppers producing during weirdness, multi-strategy advantage clear
In Other News…
FinNuts Market Flash: The $48 Billion Tuesday
“Markets celebrate spending spree whilst government celebrates Day 35 of not functioning.”
Monday delivered $48 billion in AI infrastructure deals proving that nothing says confidence like spending money you don’t have on technology that hasn’t proven profitable yet. Amazon and Microsoft raced to deploy capital whilst Kimberly-Clark discovered the revolutionary strategy of buying competitors during controversy. Markets ignored government shutdown Day 35 tying records, because apparently dysfunction is only concerning if it affects stock prices.
When Spending Becomes Strategy
Amazon rocketed 4% to record highs celebrating its $38B seven-year OpenAI AWS deal—financial equivalent of pre-ordering infrastructure for profits that remain theoretical. Microsoft joined the party with $9.7B IREN partnership for GB300 processors because apparently infrastructure you can physically touch feels safer than admitting nobody knows if any of this generates returns.
OpenAI’s committed $1.4 trillion over five years, which would be impressive if they had, you know, actual revenue streams or profitability path. But details like “where does money come from” seem quaintly old-fashioned when everyone’s playing pass-the-AI-parcel.
“We’re spending our way to enlightenment, one server farm at a time.”
️ Old Economy Discovers It’s Old
Dow lagged Monday as old economy names faced uncomfortable reality that making physical products people need is significantly less exciting than burning capital on speculative technology. Kenvue soared 20% on $48.7B Kimberly-Clark acquisition—though acquirer plunged 14% as investors noticed the Tylenol controversy and wondered if buying controversy counts as diversification strategy.
Consumer staples mixed because apparently tissue manufacturers and baby products are “boring” compared to companies spending billions on chips nobody’s quite sure how to monetize. Energy flat despite oil holding $60-61, materials steady with gold at $4,014—all thoroughly ignored whilst Nasdaq surged 0.61% on infrastructure euphoria.
Palantir Prepares Valuation Reckoning
Tonight brings Palantir’s earnings with Street expecting stellar 70% EPS growth and 50% revenue expansion—which initially sounds brilliant until someone mentions the 200x forward earnings valuation. Options pricing extreme volatility suggesting even optimists hedge when mathematics becomes theoretical exercise rather than actual analysis.
AMD reports Tuesday testing whether chip sector has remaining tolerance for reality. October jobs report delayed by government shutdown meaning Fed’s flying blind into policy decisions, but apparently missing economic data is bullish because bad news can’t arrive if nobody measures anything.
Q3 earnings season posting 82% beat rate with 12% blended growth, yet tech valuations facing scrutiny after Magnificent Seven’s October surge generated most of market’s gains whilst everyone else attended participation trophy ceremony.
Shutdown Day 35: Markets Discover Apathy
Government shutdown ties record at Day 35 but VIX stable at 16.8 signals market’s discovered advanced apathy techniques. 42 million Americans receiving half SNAP benefits, federal workers unpaid, yet risk appetite persists because apparently societal dysfunction is priced in now.
Treasury curve stable with Fed cut probability 99% because economic weakness no longer requires actual economic data—just vibes and infrastructure spending commitments. Dollar strength at 98.567 pressuring commodities but nobody cares when AI infrastructure narrative dominates.
Credit spreads stable whilst $48B+ deploys Monday alone, raising delicious question: Is this investment boom or elaborate game of financial musical chairs where everyone hopes they’re not left standing when music stops?
☕ Hazel’s Final Thought
Wall Street’s celebrating record spending during record dysfunction, treating OpenAI’s $1.4T commitment like it’s backed by something other than optimism and venture capital.
When the infrastructure finally demands returns on all this deployed capital, it won’t be gradual disappointment—it’ll be a “wait, where’s the profit?” moment that makes Monday’s 14% Kimberly-Clark drop look like warm-up act.
—Hazel Ledger,
FinNuts Bureau of Spending Without Counting
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom: Percy was discovered teaching his desk pigeons “Weird & Funky Market Top Formation Flying Around Tipping Mag7” whilst analysing knee-knocking whipsaws and claiming they had mastered “Chart-gasm Pattern Recognition Advanced Cooing With 600% ROC Celebration Discipline.”
Hazel updated her crisis management protocols to include “Past Market Top Behaviour Recognition Emergency Procedures” alongside contingency plans for “Abandoned Baby Pattern B- Setup Integration With Tweezer Top Bull Horn Mini Double Top Chart-gasm Monitoring And Not Buggering Around Protocols.”
Mac raised his Wednesday whisky and declared, “When META bears hit 600% ROC whilst AMZN shows abandoned baby patterns and NVDA triggers chart-gasms before earnings and systematic traders stay mechanical without buggering around during weird funky topping behaviour, disciplined positioning becomes delightfully superior to emotional prediction!”
Kash attempted livestreaming about “chart-gasms being basically like DeFi yield farming excitement but with actual technical pattern conviction” but got distracted calculating whether 600% ROC counts as “generational wealth” in options terms.
Wallie grumbled that in his day, market tops meant “proper distribution with volume confirmation rather than this modern weird funky behaviour with Mag7 tipping over and chart-gasm pattern obsession!”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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